So Hurricane Lane has crossed on over to the Central Pacific region, which means that the agency tasked to monitor and issue official uncertainty cone forecasts comes from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Below is what was issued for Sunday, August 19.

(Above graphic used ONLY for illustrative purposes, credit to Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

Notice, again that Hurricane Lane is following a similar track to Hurricane Hector from about 2 weeks ago, however, the intensity of Lane seems to be on a weaker timeline most likely due to more wind shear just below Hawaii, while Hurricane Hector was able to still maintain its Category 3 status.

Now, many of the forecast models shown on the spaghetti models seem to disagree with the future track of Hurricane Lane comes Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Half of them half it simply moving on the WNW track. The other half has it making a sharp northward track.

I was checking out to see what could possibly cause this uncertain sharp northward track, and it could be potentially due to the timing of a eastward moving trough approaching Kauai. It may slow down and stall or increase in speed. That is what is probably making the models go a little bit crazy into the unknown zone.

(Water Vapor image of Central Pacific region, image credit to NOAA, and used ONLY for illustrative purposes)

For instance, the GFS model, which is the American forecast model has it forecasted of Lane to make sharp turn north around Thursday evening hitting the south area of Big Island.

It will be interesting to see where Hurricane Lane decides to go. I think the actual track being figured out will have to be last minute, probably 24-36 hours before hand to determine the exact area that Lane will hit.

If you have been monitoring Lane, where do you think this hurricane/tropical storm will go?