The US Does Not Understand Existential Conflict

The past two years have seen the opening of many conflicts. Whether it be the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine or the Israeli-Gaza War, the US continues to believe that it can solve these conflicts by throwing money at them or supporting one side.

The US believes that by supporting a side and throwing money at the side they want to win, the end result will be the victory of that side and everyone being better off. They cannot fathom why the opposing side will continue fighting even after everything the US and allies have thrown at it.

The answer is simple. When a nation sees a threat that it believes as existential in nature, they will do everything that they can to ensure that this threat is destroyed, because if the threat is not destroyed, that means it has destroyed them.

Russia vs. Ukraine

In the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, this is viewed by the Russians as preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. For Ukraine to join NATO would mean NATO military bases and weapons closer to Moscow. A NATO encirclement would set the stage for the end of the Russian nation.

This is why that, no matter what the west does to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, such talks will always fail as long as Ukraine entering NATO is a possibility.

Of course, not allowing Ukraine to eventually join NATO if it so chooses is off the table for the West. After all, they are a sovereign country, why shouldn’t they be allowed to decide their own foreign policy?

On the flip side, Ukraine cannot afford to roll over either, because doing so would most likely mean the end of Ukraine as a nation. If not this, then Ukraine losing significant portions of its territory while operating as a rump state controlled by the Russians.

So what is the solution? Emptying our coffers to Ukraine, which has only survived this long because of Western support. In the long run, barring some catastrophic event, Russia will win because of its greater population, manufacturing capacity, and air superiority. The West can delay the inevitable but cannot prevent it.

The West also cannot directly enter the war on the side of Ukraine, because doing so would most likely result in a nuclear exchange. Thus, we are only able to limit ourselves to sending all of our ammunition. This surely will not come back to bite us at all.

In the end, we are sucked into a stalemate where neither Ukraine or Russia will win or yield to the other because existence demands that they continue the conflict until a winner is decided.

Israel vs. Gaza

We also see this with the Israeli-Gaza War. Both sides are locked in a struggle which will determine whether or not they will continue to exist. The Israelis do not want a Palestinian victory because such a victory will mean the end of the Jewish state. Palestine does not want an Israeli victory because that will mean the continuing Jewish domination Palestinians.

The US has no grasp of how to deal with this. They talk about ceasefire but that is a short term solution to a long term problem. The only way this gets solved is if one side is totally victorious. Anything short of that just kicks the can down the road another ten years.

This is also why the US has found it difficult to engage with Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. The Americans do not understand that their support for Gaza is not something that they can be bribed out of. In their eyes, they have a moral and religious duty to support the Palestinians.

It is why that no matter how much the US bombs Yemen, it will never be enough. They will keep launching missiles at ships until their terms and conditions are met, because they are not fighting for themselves, they are fighting for Palestine.

These problems are also why our secret talks with Iran yield no fruit. Iran is just as invested in a Palestinian victory as the Houthis are. After all, they have aided in the creation of many proxy forces in which they have instilled this ideology. Imagine the feeling of betrayal should Iran suddenly turn heel because the US asked nicely?

I wouldn’t want to be Iran should the heavily armed groups I had created turn against me because I accepted a deal with the Americans. After all, those groups are closer to Iran then they are to the US. No, Iran will not yield to whatever deal we want to make with them.

Conclusion

In failing to recognize these existential motivations, all the US has done is guarantee itself to be in more involved in forever wars that have plagued us for the past two decades. Our involvement has not made things better, and I would argue that it has led us closer to world conflict than at any point during the Cold War.

To think we have thousands of foreign policy experts who cannot grasp this simple concept. Of course, perhaps they can, but ideology prohibits them from actually entertaining the idea. That is the most likely explanation for this neglect.

My position on these issues are the same as they have always been: bring the troops home, and let the world sort out their own problems. We do not need to be sucked in to more conflicts when we have urgent problems needing to be addressed at home.

Those of you who believe in a more active US presence in the world may disagree with my assessment. That is fine. I ask you though, what is your solution to these issues that will actually guarantee a long term peace? If we cannot answer these questions, then we should not be involved in conflicts of existence.