Polls have not yet closed in Virginia. But the most important election result is already in!

I refer, of course, to the poll of students in my daughter's elementary school! Terry McAuliffe managed to win this vital constituency by a 57-43% margin. My daughter refuses to reveal who she voted for (saying she "doesn't remember"), but did say "I hate Trump" (I agree!). Polls indicate that about 10% of the Virginia electorate are Biden-Youngkin voters (people who voted for Biden in 2020, but Youngkin this time). I am one such person myself. We may never know whether this was a case of like father, like daughter.

On a slightly more serious note, this actually isn't a very good result for McAuliffe. We're talking about students whose parents are overwhelmingly northern Virginia college graduates, a constituency McAuliffe needs to win by a good deal more than 14 points if he is going to prevail today. We'll have to see if he manages to do that or not.

At this point, I give Youngkin about a 55-60% chance of winning (not, I hasten to add, because of the school poll, but based on more serious data;)). But polls underestimated Virginia Dems in 2017 and 2018 (they were exactly on target in 2020). It will be interesting to see how they perform today.

The School student body also voted to suspend the dress code one Friday each month, and against eliminating one of their free "movement" periods in order to allow for more class-time. Unlike the gubernatorial vote, these referenda are binding! Better decisions than most of those made by adult voters:).