Hey @paulag - Thanks for the wonderful analysis. From my experience with businesses, as you said, churn has always been a fact of life. There is no way to fulfill the needs of all of the users in one simple platform.
I'm not sure how to access the data within STEEM, but maybe what we can start to do is to do cohort analyses. See if recent cohorts have drop-offs in activity at a much more accelerated pace. If not, I would say STEEM is here to stay! Also, it would be pretty cool to confirm whether or not price really does have an impact on churn (my logic says it is, but I don't have the concrete evidence to support this). I always say that this is the time to take advantage of the opportunity!
I use steemsql to access the data and if you want, I can get you some raw data to play around with. There is a correlation with the users and the price of steem, but there is also a correlation between the price of steem and the general crypto sentiment.
Tried accessing the SQL database, but it's apparently a subscription model now. I'll have a look later and hopefully do some cohort analyses with your information! Thanks again for your help!