How much of the total Steem SP is not voting?steemCreated with Sketch.

in utopian-io •  7 months ago 

Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

Introduction

We have seen with several data analyses in the past weeks and months that the overall activity in terms of posts, comment and authors on the blockchain is steadily decreasing. What about those stopping to post, are they still voting? And how big is the amount of SP that is sitting idle at 100% VP and is not voting (anymore?). This contribution tries to analyze how much of the total SP on the chain is actually used to vote.

Outline

  • Scope and tools
  • Context: Current posting/voting activity on the chain
  • Analyzing the last voting time of all accounts
  • Excluding Steemit's SP
  • Results & Conclusion

Scope and tools

This analysis is based on all post, comments and votes done on the blockchain between Sept. 1st until Nov. 22nd, 2018. A snapshot of all Steem accounts including their last voting time stamp was extracted on Nov. 23rd around 18:00 UTC. All data was queried from @arcange's SteemSQL database using python. The graphs were created with matplotlib. All query and processing scripts to create the results and graphs shown here are on my GitHub.

Context: Current posting/voting activity on the chain

posts_per_day.png

These graphs show the number of posts and comments created per day on the left and the number of distinct authors per day on the right. The time range is from beginning of September, across the hardfork, until Nov. 22nd. The effects of the hardfork are clearly visible: the few days immediately after the fork where most users were suffering from low RC and the overall reduced number of comments afterwards. In general, both the number of posts and comments per day are steadily decreasing and are currently slightly above 10k root posts and slightly less than 40k comments per day. The figure on the right shows the number of distinct authors in total (green) and for root posts (blue) and comments (orange) separately for the same time range. Apart from the hardfork effect, we can see also here a steady decrease in the number of authors. We're currently at around 10k distinct authors per day. What's remarkable is that we have more root posters than commenting authors - I would have actually expected this the other way around?! I at least write more comments than posts, but this may figure may be biased from bot accounts.

A seconds aspect is the voting activity:
votes_per_day.png

The figure on the left shows the number of distinct voter per day. Apart from the hardfork effects, this number is also slowly decreasing and is currently at around 47k voting accounts per day. The only graph with a slight upwards trend is the sum of the vote values (in rshares) per day on the right. This means that the total SteemPower that is voting per day is slightly increasing, despite the number of voters decreasing. I didn't do the math here since this is only a side effect in the context of this work, but correlating this with the network inflation could give additional insights here. Also, there's a "dip" around Oct. 24th - does anybody know what happened there? The number of voters did not change, but the overall vote value was significantly reduced?!

Analyzing the last voting time of all accounts

The amount of powered-up but inactive SP can be found by going through the list of all Steem accounts. Each account holds a timestamp with the last voting time and the number of own and delegated VESTs. I have grouped the accounts into 8 categories, depending on when their last vote was done:

acc_distribution.png

The graph on the left shows the distribution of all Steem accounts by number based on their last vote. We can see that around 50k accounts voted within the last 3 days. This is consistent with the voting activity graph from above.There are only a few (8k/7k/12k) accounts which last voted at least 1/2/4 weeks ago. A considerable number of accounts, 175k accounts, voted the last time between 4 weeks and half a year ago. Half a million accounts last voted up to a year ago, around 350k accounts more than a year ago. 56k accounts never voted. Note that this histogram does not take the account creation time into account. Especially the last number with accounts that never voted includes accounts that were created at any time since Steem exists.

More interesting for the given topic of this post is the graph on the right, showing the same categories but this time summing up the effective SP of the corresponding accounts. We can see here that accounts with around 108 Million SP in total voted within the last 3 days. Another 1, 2, and 3 million SP voted within the last 1, 2 and 4 weeks respectively. The peaks visible in the distribution on the left between 4 weeks and one year is not that strong here, confirming that the half million of inactive accounts has only little SP. What's strongly visible in the SP distribution is around 49 million SP which last voted more than a year ago and another 23 million SP that never voted. The obvious question is: who is holding that much SP and is not voting?

idle_accounts.png

The result is probably not very surprising - the largest SP holders who haven't voted within a year from now are strongly dominated by Steemit accounts which do not vote at all. For a more meaningful result, these accounts should be excluded:

Excluding Steemit's SP

The same account / SP distribution based on the last voting time is calculated, but now the accounts @steem and @steemit, holding a total of 50 million SP:

acc_distribution_exl.png

The distribution by account numbers on the left doesn't change by just excluding two accounts, but the SP distribution on the right has the share of idle SP that hasn't vote ever of within the last year considerably.

Results & Conclusion

  • The overall activity on the blockchain is still decreasing. This applies both to the number of posts and comments, as well as the number of authors and voters per day
  • Nevertheless, the total vested stake that votes increases slightly
  • Analyzing the last voting times of all accounts shows that Steemit accounts make a big share of inactive stake.

Taking the final SP distribution graph that excludes two Steemit accounts with 50M SP in total, we can say:

  • 72% of the remaining vested Steem has voted within the last 3 days, 74% has voted within the last two weeks
  • 10% of the vested Steem hasn't voted within the last year and 5% hasn't voted ever

Hardfork 20 clearly changed the comment activity on the chain. The overall activity in terms of posts and voters is continuing a downward trend, and the low price probably isn't helping very much to change this. But did we lose large stake holders? At least from these numbers, this cannot be confirmed. The majority of inactive stake was inactive already for quite a while.

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

Hi @crokkon

Good stuff!

An analysis that answers some questions and raises a few also.

This means that the total SteemPower that is voting per day is slightly increasing, despite the number of voters decreasing. I didn't do the math here since this is only a side effect in the context of this work, but correlating this with the network inflation could give additional insights here.

This sounds promising and it looks like good scope for future investigations.

Also, there's a "dip" around Oct. 24th - does anybody know what happened there? The number of voters did not change, but the overall vote value was significantly reduced?!

I see Paula found the answer as to what caused it, but do you have more info as to why vote values dipped?

Really interesting, well-written, and presented!

Asher

·

Thanks, Asher, also for the RS! As often, the analysis immediately raised some questions for a follow-up investigation. Yes, Paula's remarks on the update/release of Steem 0.20.6 fit exactly to the timestamp of the dip. Yet I haven't really understood why this change affected the total rshares on that day but not the number of distinct voters.

·
·

No worries.

Were there less votes on this day overall? Maybe the regular voters got at least 1 or 2 autos in before/after some downtime to the auto tools?

But this wouldn't reduce the size of votes?

·

Thank you for your review, @abh12345! Keep up the good work!

72% is a good figure, so seems many people are actively participating even though the market is red. That is a good sign for the block chain.

Really intetesting. Hope my rshared are going up in line with the voting sp.\n\nDid the roll out of 20.6 happen around that date?\n\nAlso, sorry if i missed it, but did u use owned sp or controlling sp?

Posted using Partiko Android

·

The rshares are calculated based on the controlled vests, the voting power and the vote %. So yes, more SP means more rshares for the same vote parameters. You are right, 20.6 was rolled out exactly on Oct. 24th! This included RC changes, but has actually relaxed the situation, IIRC. I'll have to take a deeper look if this could have affected the vote values in some kind. The analysis was based on controlled SP.

·
·

As the analysis was based on controlling SP, a large amount of steemit inc SP is now delegated out via Misterdelegation and has a large impact on this. I wonder how it would look and what effect it would have on votes if this delegation was not in place and was not used for voting.

·
·
·
  ·  7 months ago (edited)

Good point! I was thinking about this aspect for quite a while before and during the work. In the context of finding SP that is not voting, I've decided to use the controlled/effective SP since the account votes are based on this stake. This includes Steemit stake. Even though Steemit does not vote with their stake directly, their delegations are clearly meant for voting. This includes delegations from @misterdelegation, but also all stake given out to new users via @steem.

A slightly different but related question is, how much of the active stake is coming from Steemit. I guess your comment was going in that direction? The data set showed a total of 108M SP voting at least once within the last 3 days. @misterdelegation is currently giving out 18.4M SP to dapps. The dapps are active, so this number can safely be subtracted from the 108M SP. A bit more complicated are the delegations to users via @steem. A total of 5.9M SP is currently delegated out from that account, but parts of these delegations certainly go to inactive accounts. So as a rough guess, I'd assume that around 20-24M SP of the "active" SP is actually coming from Steemit. And then there are a couple of smaller accounts of which we don't really know it it's Steemit stake or not...

·
·
·
·

I actually forgot about the new account delegation. Very intetesting. Really nice work @crokkon

Posted using Partiko Android

Excellent analysis and well explained. This was something that crossed my mind before. Thank you for answering my question. :)

·

Thanks @eastmael, also for the resteem!

I really enjoy reading your brilliant analysis!

I'm really curious to see what happens if the price of Steem increases again to let's say $2+?

And I also wonder what percentage of the upvotes is automatically done by accounts that (almost) never login?

·

Thanks @crypto-econom1st! I'm not sure if there would be a significant difference with a higher Steem price - the biggest part of inactive account found here are inactive for over a year, and a year ago the price was like 10x of now. The question of automated votes is very interesting and I took several attempts to put this into numbers :) Unfortunately, it's not easy to get a reliable picture there...

Super interesting analysis. Great to see that so much SP is actively being used and only very few ignore the compounding machine that Steem is.

Interesting analysis that I feel is quite positive given the challenges felt lately. The fact that 70% are being consistent in voting is encouraging. I wonder how much though has to do with vote selling and the impact of bots although those too have seen declines. Thanks for sharing

·

Thanks @newageinv! From previous investigations a few months ago, the share of sold/bot-votes made up around 30% of all votes per day (by value). I don't have recent numbers available, so I can't tell for sure if/how this has changed. Certainly worth another look...

I'm actually surprised it's that much.

Hi @crokkon!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 4.979 which ranks you at #1114 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has not changed in the last three days.

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 212 contributions, your post is ranked at #11.

Evaluation of your UA score:
  • Some people are already following you, keep going!
  • The readers appreciate your great work!
  • Great user engagement! You rock!

Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server

Congratulations! Your post has been selected as a daily Steemit truffle! It is listed on rank 2 of all contributions awarded today. You can find the TOP DAILY TRUFFLE PICKS HERE.

I upvoted your contribution because to my mind your post is at least 20 SBD worth and should receive 163 votes. It's now up to the lovely Steemit community to make this come true.

I am TrufflePig, an Artificial Intelligence Bot that helps minnows and content curators using Machine Learning. If you are curious how I select content, you can find an explanation here!

Have a nice day and sincerely yours,
trufflepig
TrufflePig

Hey, @crokkon!

Thanks for contributing on Utopian.
We’re already looking forward to your next contribution!

Get higher incentives and support Utopian.io!
Simply set @utopian.pay as a 5% (or higher) payout beneficiary on your contribution post (via SteemPlus or Steeditor).

Want to chat? Join us on Discord https://discord.gg/h52nFrV.

Vote for Utopian Witness!