Everyone got tired of USD. Forecast as of 07.11.2022

Weekly US dollar fundamental forecast
The Fed isn't sure if the federal funds rate hike will impact the economy with a time lag. No matter how aggressively the US central bank has tightened monetary policy, inflation continues to be around 40-year highs while the labor market remains stable. However, this did not help the US dollar to avoid a major shock. The reasons for this are not entirely clear.

October's 261k job growth was well above Bloomberg's forecast of +200k. Despite the indicator showing the worst dynamics since December 2020, it is still growing at a faster pace than before the pandemic. In 2019, the monthly increase was 169 thousand. Employers are actively hiring employees, and the labor market is not showing the signs of cooling that the Fed would like to see. While wages slowed from 5% to 4.7% YoY, their monthly growth accelerated.

Dynamics of nonfarm payrolls and average wages in the US

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