These are my initial 2024 predictions, understanding that we are still a little less than 8 months from game day and things will change.

Right now this appears to be an election about the border and the economy. I have Trump and the GOP picking up a lot of southern battleground territory accordingly.

Trump basically comes in with a structural electoral vote advantage of 235-226, with some of those states like North Carolina leaning Trump and some like New Hampshire leaning Biden. That leaves 77 electoral votes as tossups. Trump needs to hold his 235 electoral vote base and pick up 35 more. I believe 33 of those 35 will come from Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. I think he will edge out Wisconsin and Michigan as well, giving him 293 electoral votes and a very close victory. My guess is that Pennsylvania goes to Biden, giving Trump 58 of the tossup electors and Biden 19 of them. I think all five of those states will be within 2-3 points.

In the House of Representatives I have the Republicans picking up 8 seats to take a 21 seat lead in the chamber. This will largely be fueled by flips in midwestern and southern battleground districts, as well as flipping a couple in the rural Northeast. Republicans will lose some seats in New York due to redistricting and turnout differences from the midterm, but we will pick it up in other places. Mike Johnson will lack the votes to become speaker again based on such a small majority.

In the Senate I have Republicans taking the races in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio that electoral history says they should win, and also picking up what many would consider a surprise win in Nevada. This will lead to a 54-46 majority, which would be fairly large compared to the house majority. Same 8 seat difference, but with a chamber of 100 instead of a chamber of 435.

Governorships should be pretty uneventful. My guess is that Democrats pick up New Hampshire, Republicans take back North Carolina, and everything else remains as it is currently.

This is going to be a very competitive election cycle. My guess is that my future predictions will change significantly.

Hopefully it's in the direction of more winning! Right now, I think we win this thing very close on every level.