This also applies to poker players. Having good poker skills help but sometimes you get destroyed by bad luck even though you have made good "plays". There is the other case where "bad plays" (low percentage of winning type of moves) get rewarded by good luck.

Certainty is imaginary. There's a reason for insurance. Because although catastrophic events are rare, not everyone can survive them.

These rare events have huge impact. There are financial models out there that focus on Value At Risk. That is a probability and finance topic that I am somewhat familiar with.