UFC on ESPN 1 - Heavyweight - Francis Ngannou (+135) vs. Cain Velasquez (-160) - Betting Thoughts
The odds are narrowing. When I wrote about this yesterday the odds were Francis Ngannou (+145) vs. Cain Velasquez (-170). The odds narrowed 10 points and I put in a small bet, before I did my analysis which is a total gamble. The reason I put small money down was because Cain said he would retire if he didn't put on a good performance against Francis. It worries me when a fighter says "IF".
Fight Analysis
Fight Analysis
| Category | Cain | Francis | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 3 | 4 | They are both 8-2 in the last 10 fights however I am giving an extra point for activity |
| KO | 5 | 4 | Cain leads with a 86% KO rate compared to Francis at 66% |
| Submission | 3 | 4 | Francis leads with a 33% rate compared to Cain at 14% |
| Durability - KO | 4 | 5 | Francis has never been stopped. Cain was stopped once. |
| Durability - Submission | 4 | 5 | Francis has never been stopped. Cain was stopped once. |
| Striking | 5 | 5 | Francis has one punch power. Cain has damage by volume. |
| Wrestling | 5 | 3 | No comparison on the wrestling |
| BJJ | 3 | 4 | Francis has a variety of submission wins. |
| Mental Game | 4 | 3 | Francis has broken in the past. I would have given Cain a 5 before but he seems unsure now. |
| Physical Build | 5 | 4 | Francis has 3" in height but Cain used to have crazy cardio |
| Weigh in | |||
| Total | 41 | 41 |