UFC on ESPN 1 - Bantamweight - Renan Barão (+150) vs. Luke Sanders (-180) - Betting Thoughts
I am looking at going with Renan Barao here. Renan was a world beater until he ran into TJ Dillashaw. He has posted a number of decision losses since then. At +150 this may be a good bet but I want to see the weigh in before I lay money down.
| Category | Renan | Luke | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 3 | 4 | Renan has 6 losses in last 10 fights (2 of the 6 are KOs by TJ) - Luke has 3 loses but all by stoppage |
| KO | 3 | 5 | Luke has a 50% KO rate while Renan is 24% |
| Submission | 5 | 6 | Renan has a 44% rates versus Lukes 17% |
| Durability - KO | 4 | 4 | Renan was stopped twice but by TJ. Luke was stopped once |
| Durability - Submission | 5 | 3 | Renan was never submitted. Luke was subbed twice. |
| Striking | 4 | 5 | Both are excellant strikers but Luke has more power. |
| Wrestling | 5 | 4 | Renan has the edge |
| BJJ | 5 | 3 | No question here |
| Mental Game | 4 | 3 | Both are mentally tough but Luke gets lost when taken to the ground. |
| Physical Build | 5 | 5 | Both are the same size |
| Weigh in | 5 | 4 | Renan looks huge as he does not make weight. |
| Total | 48 | 46 |
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