UFC Fight Night 145 Fight to Bet - Petr Yan (-270) vs. John Dodson (+230)
I am going to be laying a small bet on John Dodson at +230 the reasons for this are as follows:
- the odds are way too long
- both men are close in stats (other than size)
- John has fought a much better class of opponents and dropped some key split decisions
- neither man has been stopped or submitted
- Petr said he is going for the KO which I think is a mistake against John
I have not decided on what my big bet for this card is yet.
I am up 45% for 2019.
| Category | John | Petr | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 3 | 4 | John has 4 losses in his last 10 while Petr has one. I have it closer because John's opponents were monsters. |
| KO | 4 | 4 | Both men have a 45% KO rate. |
| Submission | 3 | 3 | Both men have only one win by submission. |
| Durability - KO | 5 | 5 | Neither man has been stopped. |
| Durability - Submission | 5 | 5 | Neither man has been submitted. |
| Striking | 4 | 4 | Both are good strikers but John's volume of late has been low. |
| Wrestling | 4 | 3 | John has the edge here as Petr gets taken down but both are good at getting back up. |
| BJJ | 3 | 3 | Even here |
| Mental Game | 4 | 4 | Even here but it depends if John takes more risks or not. |
| Physical Build | 4 | 5 | Petr has the definite size advantage. |
| Weigh in | 3 | 4 | Both men look a little soft but Petr looks a little better |
| Total | 42 | 44 |