Lead up to UFC 202

Conor McGregor entered the UFC like a bat out of hell: he was abrasive, confident, and he backed his claims up. Not only did he win, but he his fights were quick and lopsided, and he was exciting. A confident, well-spoken, funny, and exciting fighter? That’s a recipe for PPV success and stardom.

We’re not here to just take part, we’re here to take over

source: UFC


Conor won his first 7 UFC fights in the 145 pound division, became champion, landed himself near the top of the pound for pound best fighters in the sport list, and was the biggest star in the UFC. But after nearly (sans Frankie Edgar and a few other top fighters) clearing out the featherweight division, Conor was looking for new challenges. He attempted to move up to 155 to fight then champion Rafael Dos Anjos in a superfight, but Dos Anjos was forced out of the fight due to injury.

“When we told Conor, he said, ‘Come on! This [expletive] guy! Oh my God! He’s pulling out?’ But when we went through the options, he said he’d fight any of them.”
“I swear to God, he said, ‘I’ll fight anyone.’ He just doesn’t give a [expletive]. People talk about this strained relationship between us and Conor, and he has a different style than I’ve ever seen, but I have never seen anyone like Conor. The closest was Chuck Liddell, but we’ve never had one like Conor. You think he’s not hurt? But when he says he’s going to fight, he’s going to fight no matter what.”

Nearly every top fighter at 145-170 who wasn’t booked expressed an interest to face Conor. Not only would this represent a huge payday, but there was no love lost between Conor and other fighters: he had pissed off a lot of people and they wanted to make him pay. Ultimately, the UFC decided to book him against Nate Diaz, a true warrior and one of the most exciting fighters in the sport.

Nate is known for never backing down from a fight, his excellent ground game, his tireless cardio, his unbreakable chin, how he breaks down opponents mentally and physically over the course of long fights, and his flippant use of the middle finger.

Nate letting his opponent, Donald Cerrone, know how he feels in between the 2nd and 3rd round of their fight. source: giphy.com

Nate has always been a fringe top 5 fighter, but due to his inability to stop takedowns, he has continually suffered losses to top wrestlers. Despite never becoming champion, Nate has always been a fan favorite due to his attitude and his exciting style:

Nate has the most post fight bonuses in the history of the UFC

UFC 196

Despite Nate usually fighting at 155 pounds and Conor being the 145 pound champion, the fight was made at 170 due to Nate taking it on short notice and being unable to cut more weight in a short time period. Neither man seemed to care, their only focus was the man in front of them.

Even though Conor was fighting two weight classes above his normal weight, he was considered an enormous favorite, roughly 75-80% to win on sportsbooks. Nate had other plans.

The fight started predictably: Conor using his superior speed and punching power to batter Nate over the course of 7 minutes. Nate didn’t seem to have an answer for anything Conor did, yet nothing Conor threw at Nate seemed to phase him and he kept coming forward. Eventually Nate landed a hard 1-2 on the chin of Conor and the momentum of the fight completely reversed.

Nate battered Conor, forced him to the ground, then went on to win by Rear Naked Choke, shocking everyone except himself:

A few months later the UFC booked a rematch between the two.

UFC 202

Due mostly to his dominance in the early parts of the first fight Conor remained a favorite in the rematch, however his expected win percentage had fallen from 80% to 55%.

The fight started both similarly and differently to the previous fight: Conor dominated the first 2 rounds but used a very different strategy. Instead of relying on head movement and power punches to try and finish Diaz early, Conor concentrated on throwing endless legkicks to the lead right leg of Nate, hoping to build up damage and slow Nate in later parts of the fight. The short term result worked out for Conor: he beat and bruised Nate’s leg while winning the boxing subfight too, even knocking Nate to the ground three times. Through 2.5 rounds, Conor looked completely in control and was cruising to an easy victory. However Nate again had other plans.

Near the end of the 3rd round, Nate grew tired of unsuccessfully stalking Conor and came forward to clinch and grapple more aggressively. Using his larger frame and the threat of his ground game advantage, Nate pushed Conor into the fence and battered him with repeated short punches to the head.

This is what happened in their first match when the fight hit the ground

Conor worked so hard to defend against the takedowns that his striking defense lapsed, and the flurries landed by Nate at the end of the 3rd round once again completely shifted the momentum of the fight. In between rounds, Conor looked exhausted and physically unable to perform anywhere near the level he did in the early rounds. It was now Nate’s fight to lose.

Adjustments

With not enough energy to land vicious knockdown blows that he was capable of before and a more confident opponent, Conor was forced to make adjustments. He repeatedly threw his jab and moved away when Diaz approached. He continued to throw his legkicks, scoring points and adjusting his volume based on what his cardio and gas tank allowed. He made sure to keep his back away from the fence, circling away whenever Diaz tried to trap him. Conor brilliantly came back from a brutal 3rd round to win the 4th round, throwing 76 strikes and landing 46, his highest output of the fight while extremely tired, putting himself in a position where simply surviving the 5th round would ensure his victory.

Nate tried his best in the 5th round, but Conor stayed active enough and retained strong defense to hold off the attack and secure the win.

Full highlights and analysis from UFC Champions Dominic Cruz and Daniel Cormier. source: UFC on FOX

Takeaways

Leg kick based stragegies

I always find primarily leg kick based strategies interesting. On one hand, the Diaz brothers never check kicks and are extremely susceptible to them. But on the other, when you are a better boxer with more power too, the risk of a broken foot or injured shin losing you the fight is non-trivial. Remember Jon Jones vs Rampage Jackson? Complete one sided win for Jones, but Jon was the one who needed to be carried out of the cage due to bruised legs. Conor reportedly has a badly bruised shin from this fight and it contributed to him slowing down in rounds 3-5.

The most confident man needs to be more confident

Conor is the most confident fighter in the UFC, but he needed to be more confident in his top game on the ground. I completely understand not wanting to engage Nate’s jiu jitsu given what happened in the first fight, but Conor showed really strong top game in his fight against Max Holloway; I believe he partially tore an ACL that fight and transitioned to grappling rather than striking with Max. Staying safe on top is an easier task than surviving on bottom while being punched in the head. Not to mention, it would have retained some of his gas tank while also giving his legs a rest from the repeated leg kicks he gave. After knocking Nate down twice in the early rounds,

Conor had opportunites to follow him to the floor and declined due to a perceived edge standing. However, due to the cardio disadvantage later on, he should have considered staying. It worked out in the end for him, but the fight was much closer than it could have been. In a similar fight a few years back, Rory MacDonald battered Nate’s legs early then followed up by ragdolling him in the wrestling game:

I’m not sure Conor had the specific skillset to do the same, but staying on top of Diaz towards the end of their fight kept Rory more fresh than Conor was while staying very active standing.

A truly great fighter

Conor made fantastic adjustments to come back and win the 4th round. I thought the fight was over at the end of the 3rd, didn't see how Conor could come back from it. Not only did he intelligently save his wind, but he adjusted strategy as well. I can’t recall many instances of other fighters making a late fight adjustment to secure a victory.

Robbie Lawler has pulled out some famous victories in the 5th round by pure heart, and Dominic Cruz adjusted from a striking first strategy to using his wrestling to beat now pound for pound king Demetrious Johnson, but that was after the first round. The closest example I can come up with is Jon Jones adjusting in the 4th round of his fight against Alexander Gustafsson to secure a victory. Incredible heart from an incredible champion.

Despite being the first person to defeat Conor in the UFC, Nate Diaz is the first to push Conor into true greatness.

Trilogy?

I’d rather not see an immediate trilogy. Conor is the 145 pound champion and has not defended his belt for nearly a year. There are many fun fights for him in the 145 (Jose Aldo rematch, Frankie Edgar) and 155 (Dos Anjos, Cerrone, Eddie Alvarez, Khabib Nurmagomedov) pound divisions, and putting his career on hold even longer to have another grudge match against Nate Diaz is fun, but repetitive.

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