At this point, here is how I see the VP rankings in terms of who is MOST LIKELY to be selected:

Ben Carson- This is the guy who checks every box for Donald Trump. Trump cares first and foremost about loyalty, and Carson was one of only six secretaries to make it through the entire Trump presidency. The other five are all people with little real political profile. He endorsed Trump the week after dropping out in 2016, and has been a complete loyalist since. He will be 73 years old on Election Day, and is therefore very unlikely to consider himself a 2028 Presidential contender. Carson also has an incredible personal story and a winsome demeanor that will help to smooth out Trump's rough edges. He is EXTREMELY likable. I can see him being very appealing to both women and especially to black men. He has proven that he is competent on the stump, in a debate and on the campaign trail. In my view he is easily the best candidate, even if there are others (Donalds, Vance) who I agree with more on policy.

Doug Burgum- Doug Burgum's entire political future is tied to Donald Trump. He has resigned as governor of North Dakota, all four statewide elected officials in North Dakota are his age or younger (meaning he can't wait them out), and he emphatically lacks the national profile to run credibly in 2028. His only path to political relevance is being Trump's VP, which is why he will provide Trump with a combined level of loyalty and funding that no other candidate has the ability to match. He also doesn't seem to have any particularly strong convictions, so the chance that he would EVER deviate from Trump are virtually zero. The combination of a potential 9 figure check and total loyalty make Burgum the 2nd place candidate.

Marco Rubio- Marco has a political problem right now: He is the clear second fiddle politician in his home state. If him and Ron DeSantis faced off in a statewide election, Rubio would lose badly. That basically means he cannot advance to the Presidential stage (his real goal) unless that is resolved. Because he has almost no chance of advancing in his political future without being Trump's VP, I think he will pass the loyalty test that Trump is probably relying on heavily. Trump may also be thinking that Marco can help him win the Hispanic vote, and provide an articulate surrogate for the campaign. In a Republican Party where immigration is quickly becoming the #1 issue, Marco needs a BIG change of image if he ever wants to be the face of the party. This is his only real path to that.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders- She is not on the official "final 7" list, but I think Sanders has a better shot than anyone outside of the top 3. First of all, she is a fierce loyalist, which matters a lot to Trump. She also has a name that matters a lot to Evangelicals. An unfortunate reality of this election is that Trump is going to take the Evangelical vote for granted and moderate on social issues in an attempt to win an economics based election. Nominating Sanders would help to reassure Evangelical voters who are upset by that, as the "Huckabee" name still carries a lot of weight in those circles. She is also proven in her ability to debate, handle the media, attack the Democrats and defend President Trump. Then there's the woman factor, which could help with women. In a lot of ways, she checks all the boxes.

Elise Stefanik- This would be the establishments dream pick, and I have no doubt there are people in the Trump orbit who are advocating for Stefanik. Trump likes her too, which is unfortunate but important. If nobody else looks good and Sanders truly is not up for consideration, he might default to Stefanik in an attempt to "unify the party" (it would do the opposite) and woo donors. I think that would be a huge mistake, as she is not very talented or very likable. I don't think she helps much with any demographic besides MAYBE a little with women, but almost any woman would move the ball with women in the way that she would.

JD Vance- This gets back to the idea that Trump really is not looking for a "successor" with this VP pick. In fact, he's probably quite averse to choosing someone who has their own future ambitions which could cause them to not back his agenda fully. JD Vance is politically brilliant, called the rural GOP shift a decade before it happened, and would be perhaps the best choice on policy. But I think Trump got burned by Mike Pence to the point that he is going to REALLY prioritize loyalty, which will preclude him from picking someone with such grassroots traction.

Tim Scott- There are reports that Tim Scott is very unlikely to be the candidate selected, and that aligns with my own perception of the VP race. Tim Scott doesn't have any talent, has a questionable personal history, is the embodiment of tokenism in the GOP, and has never accomplished anything. It's such a stark contrast to an accomplished, principled man like Ben Carson or even a fierce conservative fighter like Byron Donalds. Every alleged advantage Scott would offer is something that someone else in the race beats him on.

Byron Donalds- There is apparently some dirt on Donalds which would prevent him from being picked, and he's also the least accomplished guy here. Brings nothing to the table that Ben Carson doesn't bring, and has several drawbacks that most of the other choices do not have. There is also the Freedom Caucus factor. Donalds is a loyal FC member, Trump has been at odds with the FC on many endorsements.