But of course, that depends on how much probability you assign to each outcome in your own mind😄

When I made the post I was probably over 50% leaning to the upward case - but by a day later when new data had appeared on the chart, I changed my bias to be more negative, and sold around the $225 level. This was mainly based on the 'shape' of the curve - it seemed to be accelerating downwards!

P.S. it's very unusual for all timeframes to show the same bias in my experience, but i generally find the longer timescales win out in the end;)