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RE: Lets look at my recent trades, and where will I buy BTC, BCH, ETH next? Wheres the bottom???

in #trading7 years ago (edited)

Hi Luc,

I would just like to start by saying your channel is great. Been following you for a few months after watching lots of other videos on how to position/swing trade and day trade. You're lack of use of technical indicators is refreshing. Everyone else is speculating on fibonacci retracements, crossing MAs etc. which seems to me like adding uncertainty to an already uncertain market

I have a more general question that I hope you can get round to answer. It's essentially holding versus position trading. Your earlier videos (mid-2017) on position trading make sense in the markets of that time, however now the markets seem to be rising at a greater % than before. And, if crypto follows the S-curve adoption profile, this bullish market may go up at a higher rate still. In this situation, do you still favour position trading versus holding? Which nets the biggest percent profits? For example LTC is up 9000% this year (from start of year to recent peak). A $10,000 investment in January would have been $900,000 at the recent peak. Has position trading out-performed this? Of course, the issue here is how would you know LTC would've gained that much.

This is in no way a dig, I am just curious.

Thank you.

Edit.
I just made a quick excel compound interest calculator. If you start with $500, and make 5% every 3 days, you'd have $192,000 at the end of the year. However, if you make 6% every 3 days, then you'll have $610,000 at the end. And if you make 7% every 3 days, that would get you $1.9 million. Crazy how compound percentage works. Moreover, if you started with $5000 and made 5% every 3 days, you'd have $1.9 million also. 5% every three days does not sound unachievable if you follow what Luc says and set up alerts for 100 or so coins. You'd just have to be on it for a year. In that case, you'd outperform holding (e.g. starting with $500, making 7% every 3 days giving $1.9 million; that's a 380,000% increase (3800 x); I think that would beat any holding.

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That's an older video. The markets now are very different, they're consolidating after that huge increase in early-mid December. Trends seem less predictable, I don't see many rebounds after base cracks, instead there's lots of drops. The markets now are just so FOMO/FUD driven compared to just a month ago.

So basically, you're asking a professional trader whether he really thinks trading is better than investing?

Actually, he does both: he trades frequently to get free coins that he holds as an investment. When he gets that "hot potato" feeling because the market has been very bullish, he sells off some of the profits, and keeps the rest to let them grow. If the market grows, he can sell some more. If it retracts, even better because then he gets to trade and get more free coins!

https://steemit.com/trading/@quickfingersluc/btc-almost-usd4-000-will-it-hit-usd6-000-or-more-where-do-i-take-profits-on-my-free-coins

Luc has said over and over that his old videos are always valid, regardless of the overall market trends. Trade when there's an argument and panic breaks bases.

You're right that the bounces aren't as high right now, but they're still there. You just have to adjust your targets accordingly by waiting for longer drops and/or taking smaller, quicker profits. If you find it breaking too many bases at a time, you're probably not drawing your bases properly.

The problem with cryptos as a long-term investment is that they don't pay dividends. The only way to get money out of them is to sell some, which always means having fewer coins. So regardless, if you're planning to use your crypto wealth as an income stream for life, you need to come up with a long-term strategy for selling them off in a way that maximises your profits, e.g. selling enough during the peaks so that you're not forced to sell during the slumps to have living money. It's great to be "worth" a million dollars in bitcoin, but if you never ever sell them, then what good does it do you, really?

Would also like to hear your thoughts on this luc

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