📉STEEM Investor Report 10 July 2017 (Broader Market Down, STEEM following altcoins down)
Trading Recommendation:
Hold, Bitcoin price action is may trend lower
Investment Recommendation:
Buy, expecting to be much higher in 6 months!
Analyst Commentary:
The STEEM price fell 15.31% verse the USD over the past 24 hours on lower volume ($1,447,250) on a red day for the broader crypto market hitting many of those outside the top 9 harder. The price chart and lack of news about Bitcoin does not give be a reason to believe it is going to recover soon (unless we get Hard Fork news). The rewards pool decline appears to be slowly leveling off (it is hard to see so I drew a trend line to help show it). I plan to post my analysis of the rewards pool tomorrow (I keep getting tied up with other projects). New account creation is going strong with just under 3,000 new accounts created in the last 24 hours. The % vested indicator rose to 71.38% and continues to remain essentially flat over the past 3 weeks which indicates to me that investment is matching power downs. Actual investment into the Steem blockchain has not been high over the past few days, but the fall in the STEEM price appears to have triggered many whales to slow their power downs. Daily active accounts is up to 22,943 due to the volume of new accounts. The SBD inflation is down with 1 SBD worth about $0.963. It appears like witnesses may need to start paying attention to the SBD peg again!
Bitcoin continues to weight on the whole Crypto market, I have not seen any news to show that changing soon but I recommend watching crypto news closely because the market appears ready to move quickly. For traders, believe STEEM has significant upside potential due to fundamentals, however Bitcoin's slide could take us much lower. I advise selling and looking to buy in lower or holding what you have now. On the investor side, I believe we will be significantly higher at the end of the year after communities are released and the account creation problem is solved. I would power up your rewards and look for opportunities to buy at current price levels.
New @psa post
Payout Recommendation
I am expecting the SBD premium to return when the crypto market picks back up, therefore, I recommend taking your rewards in 50% SBD and using it to buy STEEM in the internal exchange.
Marketing Trust
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Data Credit:
Steemchart.com
Coinmarketcap.com
Steemdb.com
Disclosure:
The report published above is based on my assessment of the cryptocurrency market. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. All investments involve market risk, including possible loss of principal invested. The author is a cryptocurrency investor and while he seeks to provide honest assessments to the best of his ability may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Discord Chat:
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May I ask why you recommend for investing in bitcoin at this time? In the long-term, it is a great idea but I believe the uncertainty in the market dictates that right now is not the optimum time - the price of bitcoin will most likely drop further before rebounding and reaching new highs. As an investor, I would only ever invest when the price is right which will most likely be the case in a few weeks from now or perhaps even further away
I would tend to agree with you. I am nervous until after Aug 1st.
I'm actually going to be writing an article very soon about why I believe altcoins will suffer in the short-term regardless of whether the implementation of Segwit 2x is a success or not. Does that sound like something you'd be interested in mate?
I recommend investing in STEEM, not Bitcoin. I'm actually looking at moving about half of my Bitcoin into other coins over the next week.
I actually love Steem and I plan to move a lot of my investment into the platform soon (especially as you get to benefit from increased steem power and thus higher voting power) but, in the next month or son I would say that all Cryptocurrencies are a poor investment. In the long term, they are a truly incredible option but I would never recommend investing in something unless it is at the right price. For me, I believe the ideal price will be around 1st August as this is when Bitcoin implements the Segwit 2x upgrade and, until then, uncertainty in the market will be so high that prices will struggle. What's your take on the next month or 2? :)
I agree with your assessment that there will be significant uncertainty but I think the target date is 21 July when miners will begin choosing to implement Segwit. If 51% of miners implement, than the uncertainty could end before 1 August.
I think you could do well dollar cost averaging your investment between now and 21 July. If a couple large mining pools announced Segwit implementation early, you could miss out on a rally. Prices are already suppressed, while this may not be the perfect bottom it is still a good place to get in.
You make a very valid point. Personally, I believe the safest thing to do is to wait slightly longer and be as certain as you can be that the instability in the market is over.
However, your point is also true and I respect the thought you have put in so I have followed you in order to see more of your work
Thanks for following
very knowledgeable.so interesting.
thanks for report!
grate work
It is already happening. I saw you were a bit optimistic every time SBD was trading higher, but I think this is not a healthy approach. I'm sure you know how SBD works, but maybe it's worth having a look at this post: https://steemit.com/steemit/@dragosroua/the-real-role-of-sbd-in-the-steem-blockchain
I have been encouraging investors to take advantage of the high SBD value but understand that while it benefits current early adopters, it makes mass adoption more difficult. I actually wrote about that in the crypto report I produced with @digicrypt. I've been supporting @timcliff's proposal for a conversion process from STEEM to SBD to help knock down the price when it gets too high.
What I was actually referencing in my post was the risk of the peg falling below $1.00. It appears to be at risk of crashing very low which would be far more damaging to the perception of the peg than it being high.
The price bias is adjusted to that, if you look at http://steemd.com/witnesses. Most of them have bots to quickly react to market swings, so, as long as there aren't huge pump and dump schemes going on in exchanges, the peg will hold, no matter which way SBD price goes.
BTW, I am enjoying you analysis, keep it on!