How long will Fed rate cuts continue, and how many will there be?

Where rates stand now: The Fed funds rate is currently at 3.75 percent, the benchmark interest rate in the United States as last recorded, held in a range of 3.5%–3.75%.

New Fed Chair, new tone: The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, but a hawkish policy statement and economic projections raised the odds of a rate hike this year. Chairman Warsh emphasized that the central bank will be "unambiguous and unanimous" in its commitment to stabilizing consumer prices.

The dot plot got hawkish: Nine members projected at least one hike in 2026, while eight others projected rates to remain unchanged, with only one dot still projecting a rate cut this year.

Wall Street forecasts shifted too: Goldman Sachs Research has pushed back its forecast for Fed rate cuts to June and December 2027, from December 2026 and March 2027 previously. Similarly, J.P. Morgan Global Research sees the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026, with a 25 basis point hike expected in September 2027.

Why the shift? On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. Inflation has also stayed sticky — PCE inflation was revised sharply higher to 3.6% for this year, up from 2.7%.

Bottom line: Just a year ago, cuts felt like a sure thing. Now, thanks to a stronger labor market, stickier inflation, and a new, more hawkish Fed Chair, markets are debating whether 2026 will end with zero cuts — or even a hike — with real action possibly pushed out to 2027.