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RE: Bitcoin to $15k in March, $8.5k by June, then $30+k by Q1/2019?

in #trading3 years ago

Very interesting analysis. It’s refreshing to see something meaty like this instead of the chart & 2 sentences of hand-waving that one finds on Steemit most often these days. I’ve been holding some Bitcoin long term but got greedy and failed to sell on the most recent $20k ATH. Your advice is some good food for thought and I’ll be watching for that $13-15k bounce you mentioned.


Thanks for the upvote (to help the blog post get more visibility with a higher ranking). I hope the analysis can be helpful for others. As I wrote in another comment, I needed to write down the analysis for my internal group, so I figured better to share it and synergize with crowd sourcing of feedback and brainstorming.

Perhaps we’ll get a chance to collaborate in the future. I’m also a programmer. Interestingly you’re invested in SteemVoter, but I don’t think Steem’s voting model is the model that will prevail as a basis for decentralizing the Internet. Neither do I think consortium blockchains are the solution. (Did you see the blog Dan Larimer wrote debating me on that subject in response to to the blog I wrote about consortium blockchains not being economically/politically scalable?) I wrote a Gist about centralization of ledgers that you might find technically interesting. So I guess you might say I am working on trying to replace what you’re invested in, but in reality not likely that any altcoin will replace another altcoin. All altcoin boats are rising and falling with the general state of the crypto speculation markets.

The last crypto winter the altcoins were virtually comatose, no bid during 2014. Might be different during the next crypto winter though especially for those altcoin projects with significant adoption other than purely held for speculation.

Hey why do you say your math minor is useless? Afaics, math is very relevant in so many ways to computer science.

You should realize your dream to quit your office commute soon. I would not sell too much BTC at $15k. I think we’re still going higher into the end of the year after retest of support near the start of summer. Yet we need to observe carefully the price movements to confirm that we’re not in a crypto winter scenario decline now. To reiterate what I wrote in my blog, if we see the bounce extend to $17k and decline again significantly without making new ATHs, that would be the pattern of Dec 2013 and my concern would increase significantly. Whereas, a bounce to $15k, then declining to $8500 by June, would be consistent with the bottoming similar to Apr 2013 and a renewed ascent to ATHs to follow later in this year.

P.S. Regarding your blogs, Doritos (and most processed foods with HFCs and other nasty chemicals) are incredibly unhealthy. And extreme sleep deprivation leads to brain damage and burnout. And I agree with the guy who suggested that day trading destroys productivity and reduces gains. Instead of caffeine I employ exercise and a Warrior diet to keep my energy level high at age 52. I appreciated the information transferred by the photos of life in Japan that you shared. I’m in the Philippines currently.


hi @cryptomancer , i have some business proposal for you to help the steemit community, if you are interested we can have a little chat regarding that..hope to hear you soon this is my discord i.d @adityajainxds#3203 , this will benefit bot for us. thank you.

Feel free to send me a DM on Discord anytime if there's something you wish to discuss.