See the updated edits I made to the prior post.

Regarding your inquiry about Craig Wright, he has not initiated any fork of BTC and thus no SegWit attack on BTC is ongoing. Remember BCH has two-way replay protection so is a separate blockchain from BTC.

I don’t think he has any where near the hashrate needed to attempt to fork BTC and launch a SegWit attack. Thus this flash crash is likely a gift. Buy the dip. Eventually a SegWit attack may occur and kill off the Core protocol, but probably not now. For now, there’s only a tertiary war on BCH.

He seems to claim that he is amassing mining hashrate ongoing, and he insinuates that late next year he may participate in some SegWit attack on BTC. But not now. For now he is only attacking BCH and possibly selling some BTC to finance this. In that video I linked above, Wright says they will slowly and surely bankrupt Jihan Wu. He reiterates that with his retort of John “eat my own dick soon” McaFee. Note that purportedly mining on BCH ABC has a greater loss than mining on BCH SV. And these losses may force both sides of the hash war to sell more BTC to fund their war.

In addition to what I’ve written about ICOs, in that linked video Wright argues that a DEX that offers derivatives is an illegal bucket shop and will create tokens which are illegal and thus not fungible. In a related tweet, he argues that IOUs are warrants and thus illegal because not registered. He thinks Ripple and Lightning Networks are IOUs and thus illegal unregistered warrants (a form of securities). He thinks the new BCH opcode OP_CHECKDATASIG can enable these illegal derivatives.

Last year I wrote about some of the vulnerabilities created by Lightning Networks that both he and I independently identified.

Wright also claims eventually they want to attack all PoW altcoins, including Litecoin. Long-range concerns probably, not imminent.

EDIT: after watching the linked video, I’m leaning towards Craig Wright can force Jihan Wu’s hand. Those who want to sell BCH ABC (trade it for BTC) in case it goes to 0, and hold the BCH SV for potential upside, apparently Bitstamp is still accepting BCH deposits. Other exchanges such as Kraken and Shapeshift are not. Split your ABC and SV tokens first. Note there’s no replay protection on either fork of BCH, so you will need to avail of these:

https://airdrops.io/forks/bitcoin-abc-sv/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/9xasi2/btccom_just_released_a_replay_protection_service/

So you mix some newly mined BCH ABC (since the fork) with your spend transaction so it can’t be replayed on the SV fork. Then later you can respend the same coins on the SV fork, just do not mix the said ABC mined tokens.

Note I also responded to Craig Wright on Twitter: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1065471379955306496

EDIT#2: Given ABC is now 5X the price of SV, I would be selling my ABC splitting the exchange to 50% exchanged for BTC and the other 50% exchanged for SV. Also remember the linked estimated losses are dependent on the price of ABC and SV when they’re actually sold. Craig intends to drive the price of ABC to 0 by eventually 51% attacking it (disallowing any transactions) and thus SV up, so in the end he loses nothing (actually profits) and Jihan would thus be possibly bankrupted. The retarded/myopic/socialist community is fooled yet again.

The reason they’re fighting for control over BCH is so they can demonstrate they have the ability to start and sustain the SegWit fork attack on Bitcoin (perhaps in late 2019 if not later) so that other miners will follow them then (to partake of the SegWit donations bounty) and because when that attack on Bitcoin ensues, then the price of BCH is probably going to skyrocket. BCH is point of leverage for the future SegWit attack of Core Bitcoin in order to restore Satoshi’s protocol (i.e. vision) to Bitcoin.

I wouldn’t underestimate Craig Wright unless he actually fails in this fight. If he wins, he will have the necessary clout going forward.

EDIT#3: BSV offering an olive branch to BCH and will not 51% attack BCH if BCH will add replay protection:

https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-sv-is-not-the-original-bitcoin-cash-bch-it-is-the-original-bitcoin-says-coingeeks-calvin-ayre/

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-cash-price-drops-12-to-new-all-time-low-at-190-whats-causing-it/

Note this could possibly be a ploy to drive up the relative price of BCH to BSV, so they can dump more BCH at higher prices before attacking it. Or it may be a sign of weakness of Wright’s group. There’s many possibilities in play.

EDIT#4: in the his most recent video appearance, Craig Wright claims that Jihan has no significant BTC and instead must sell from his 1.5 million BCH holdings. He claims Jihan is renting hashrate, which is not sustainable. He claims that Jihan and Ver are fraudsters who need to flip coins on the corrupt gambling exchanges and issue an IPO/ICO in order to fund themselves. It’s as if Wright plays the bad cop while his partner plays good cop. He has clarifies that they’re selling Core BTC, not Bitcoin. So they view Bitcoin SV has the true Bitcoin. But they may possibly be shorting BTC and making money and actually buying BTC cheap.

EDIT#5: I rebutted Craig Wright on his Medium blog.

EDIT#6:

Thus the things I am waiting for to mark a bottom are.

1. Failure of large Centralized miners. Gigawatts bankruptcy was an indication we are getting closer but I think more will come.

2. Failure abandonment and functional delisting/halting of trade of the majority of current altcoins which add no marginal value to the ecosystem.

Until I see that I will be suspicious of any bounce as a temporary recovery.

Those events if they transpire will come as “death by many paper cuts” diffused over a long period, long after the flash crash which demarcates the bottom.

Again a diffused deleveraging can't be as extreme as the flash crash that concentrates the most deleveraging into the shortest time frame.

So most likely we find a bottom soon (perhaps within days) and then several months (or even more than a year) of ongoing diffused deleveraging events which cause us to revisit near to but never again the climatic bottom.

Don’t forget that Bitmain has ASICBOOST in their mining equipment which they don’t have to pay patent royalties on (because they’re in China), which lowers their cost of mining by perhaps 20+%. Core made a change so that surreptitious use of ASICBOOST is not allowed, but the overt form is still allowed. And I’m not sure if the Core change applies to blocks which don’t include any SegWit transactions. And of course the Core change wouldn’t apply to any future taking of the SegWit donations as “pay to anyone” when the Real Bitcoin forces Core to forks off and die. Gigawatts is bankrupt because of going into debt and being caught in the extreme downturn in the price.

I did not correctly reason that although in theory proof-of-work mining will and must become entirely centralized (and perhaps even winner-take-all) if considering the economies-of-scale advantages in mining (which I have enumerated in detail in the past), that centralization of mining is inherently unlikely until Bitcoin’s price becomes stable some decade or more from now, because miners will routinely be destroyed chaos. Mining is inherently a process of chaotic successes and failures because of all the uncertainty and competition in numerous factors that contribute to whether mining is profitable. Additionally the larger the scale of a miner, the more vulnerable they are to inertia. For example, they can be targeted by the State or they are more vulnerable for example to volume of supply of replacement mining equipment (as Moore’s law limits the lifespan of ASICs).