Here's a fun little dapp idea
There are many posts with crypto technical analyses but not many trading contests putting users to the test. Yes you can ask them for screenshots for proof of trades but that's something that can be cheated if the incentive exists to cheat. So how can you create something that can't be cheated? I've been thinking about this for some time so here are some details.
Only do order trading. With a lot of volume coming in now from Samsung news about their partners it will surely lead to the next ones pumping by a picture of big company ceo walking past a shiba inu and seeing dogecoin pump an hour later. I'm not saying let's invest in pump and dump coins, but if this was the bottom then it would not surprise me if it's gonna start happening more often as the world is being introduced to cryptocurrency and blockchains.
With order trading it would work to do this kind of competitions, the only thing I have to figure out is if there would be any legal complications this could bring if you would:
A. Have participants start with "1,000 Steem" on a balance created from air.
B. Users comment with their predictions of any coins on for instance Binance.
C. The trading pool is divided equally among all participants.
D. When new participants want to enter, the pool is divided equally and new user gets the same amount percentually as the first users that joined had, minus current profit.
E. Users can only edit their order or adjust part of it into another order once per day.
F. Each week users are checked for P/L according to their predictions and receive an update of the control of stake they are trading with depending on their performance. (more frequently if we go as far as to automate the calculations and scanning)
G. Once a certain momentum is gained and (if) profit is made gradually over many weeks, we start withdrawing a percentage per week out of the profits and into an account that delegates to @ocdb and receives ROI daily which could mean lifetime rewards for some traders.
H. When the returns start coming in from ocdb
I. Extra trading pool from posts going 100% beneficiary to an account that sends them to the exchange. the majority is shared among the participants and the "house" takes a cut for the effort of doing these posts and the trades.
So point G is of course the problem, not which "bot" I am using to make rewards, but sending people "dividends" if the numbers start getting high in $. I understand that each country has different rules for "sending people donations" and limitations until taxes are involved which could complicate this. I am not so sure about this part so I would appreciate if someone in the comments knows better!
The good thing is that participants never have to invest anything except their predictions and time yet they could make most of the decisions and withdraw free steem whenever they want from the returns and profit. I'm guessing it might depend on my location as the one trading and sending out the Steem.
Anyway, if anything this idea could show some cool "wisdom of the crowd" in action, combined with a requirement of having posted about crypto and trading in the past to enter it could be kinda cool and users could use that number to flex on other traders while getting some rewards from nothing. It would also add some more volume to Steem in one go. :D
Thoughts about the idea? I have a lot more ideas about the dapp that could make it a lot of fun, if someone wants to steal the idea then feel free to. There are probably a lot of ways you can automate a lot of this stuff with API's etc and giving users access to their share of the funds trade without being logged in on those exchange accounts to begin with. Add some Steem incentives and you're good to go to create something cool that may even work. :
@acidyo, I am going to point you in the direction of a new exchange that is being set up on the steem blockhain. First press release imminent. I will see if i can get something like this built into the exchange
Hey! Sounds cool! Looking forward to hear more about the exchange!
We run something similar for sports bettors - SBC League.
You write your posts with your picks, you track the results, we verify it and at the end of the month, those members that made a profit during that month get a share of the prize based on the ROI they've made.
Getting the incentives right here is a bit tricky. Since you don't have to pay to play if you start the month with your normal picks losing (the bets with reasonable odds) there's a tendency to make some longshot picks (high odds) and try that way to make the profit.
That is, there will be a lot of participants that will do that when they start losing and the crowd won't show any wisdom :-)
Another problem we had is that some members would stop posting their picks as soon as they've made the minimum number of the picks and they are in the profits. They'd just wait out the rest of the month and take a % of the prize.
And now, the big issue - ego. I imagine that the situation is the same in both the sports betting and trading, there are a lot of experts that are talking about making $$$, but they are very reluctant to have a verifiable track record. I don't see many of the so-called experts taking part in it since it would show their true performance and that's the last thing they'd like the rest of the world to see :-)
As for our specific use case, we found two promising projects:
The second one I found about yesterday. You should check these two to see what can be lifted from them and used for your dapp.
EDIT: @natedogg, the PredictEv CEO just posted about the new updates for the project in our discord server, you should read about it on BitcoinTalk to see what it is about and what can be used for your dapp idea. Just replace the sports picks with trading and you're good to go :-)
I was thinking about this a while ago but more based around owning shares in the ‘fund’, which would then earn profits which would either go directly to the shares or (in your case) be invested in @ocdb.
In this idea I would recommend that everyone would have a certain amount of Steem at stake for if their bets didn’t turn out well. The incentive system here (I believe if I understand this right) means that the participants can only win (from correct predictions) but the organizers always lose if users make incorrect predictions.
But other than that I think this is a great idea!
Are you saying you want to do it with comments? A custom DApp front end might be better, if not a bit more difficult to create. You could get the trading numbers from Yahoo or another platform with an API, then have users make their predictions through that.
I could see a trading game dApp being fun...but it's all in how you make it. Hell, I don't even know if I'd do that well, and I trade every day. Because I don't really make bets on crypto being a certain number or whatever. I just put in sells and buys based on what the charts look like, always hedging my "bets" and never really trying for maximum profit. So, if a game were based on a certain coin or stock hitting a certain point, I might do horrible. But, I still manage to make regular "profit" in the crypto market.
As to the whole wisdom of the crowds thing...I have no idea how that will work out...
But I hope if you do end up working with someone to make some sort of Dapp trading game that it's fun.
Or maybe it would be similar to trading, just maybe a bit more like betting? I dunno...I didn't follow everything I think.
I really like the simulated trading dApp idea. I'm a terrible programmer and already involved with @vimm, or I'd help make it happen.
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Participants have to have some kind of stake. Even if its 50-100 steem. People make different decisions when they have stake in the game.
You could even have a group of 10 members with 100 steem stake each and work it in groups .or any combination.
The tax responsibility would then fall on each of the individuals .
Sounds fun - would be keen it it was integrated into Steem for sure.
I had the eToro app installed a few years back and some of the features you discuss were there I think. You can follow 'top' traders and set your trades to copy them and so I assume there are metrics to decide who's doing best.
Interesting structure but I think it would need broad distribution as not everyone is that good at trading (include myself there). Maybe passive participants can come to the pool and add to the stake in support but not necesarily in the prediction? A prediction market on Steem would be great and a binary payout of whether being right or wrong to determine payout would be a great feature.
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Its a good idea. There are so many ways one could go with it. It's like a combination of steem, melonport, and cindicator, and I really wish we had a lot more fun competitive interactions like that.
Sounds like a lot of people have thought of this idea, including myself.
I'm surprised Fantasy Crypto isn't a thing, yet.
Interesting way to implement it, for sure.
So pretty much a Prediction market?
I think Steem has a pretty good shot of making a crypto one user friendly .
Yeah guess you could call it that! I agree, Steem would have some great ways of adding a lot more excitement and engagement into it.
Say how easy would it be say port Argur aka eth based smart contracts to Steemengine?
Not sure, I'm not much into smart contracts as a non-coder. :D
What kind of Smart contract code is Steemengine using?
A own custom one? Or a smart contract that work more like a distributed oracle?