I agree with Cedric Dahl's assessment. The point about open source projects having a different kind of adoption curve sounds valid, in my opinion. The main use case for Bitcoin seems to be a hedge instrument on the financial markets, and not a payment system. Without second tier solutions there is no way Bitcoin will ever become a mainstream payment instrument. For that reason, there is no reason why Bitcoin could not become very valuable before reaching any kind of mainstream adoption, or rather, mainstream adoption would not mean adoption by a large majority of people in the case of Bitcoin.