New betting strategy

in #tennis5 years ago

The NBA season is getting more and more close to the end. Meaning I will not be able anymore to bet on what I am used to for something like 4 months. Since the main reason why I am betting is more because I like it than to earn money, it's the perfect time to try something new. And to do that, I will come back to my first love : Tennis and ATP tournaments.

What's new and what am I trying ?

I built since the beginning of the year a table in Excel where I did put all the matches, the odds and winners of all ATP tournaments so far. This is meaning a sample of more than 600 matches. Not enough of course to have reliable probabilities, but enough to me to start to make tendencies and to try it.

The aim of this is to check how the results and the odds are linked. Do we have a decent ROI for some odds range, a catastrophic one for some others ? Any decent sport bettor will not like what I just wrote. The results are not linked to the odd, it's of course working the other way around. Except that in tennis results can be linked to the type of tournaments (250/500/1000/GS), the round in the tournaments, and that kind of things has a direct impact on the motivation of the greatest players, and might not be considered enough in the bookmakers odds. Meaning what ? Meaning that I expect as an example more winning odds like 5 or 6 in the first round of a 250 ATP tournaments where the conditions are 40°C and 80% humidity than in a Grand Slam third round.

How will I place my bets ?

I will start with a 1000 Units bankroll and place 20 units on each bets no matter the odds. I will try to find the interesting matches in the map every day, and after finding the bets I would place with a simple analyses, I will filter, placing only the one that have a decent ROI regarding my odd statistics, the type of tournament, the round and so on.

Today's Indian Wells bets :

Norrie VS Auger Aliassime : Norrie (-1.5 sets) @2.440

Klizan VS Zverev : Klizan @1.467

Dzumhur VS Ramos : Dzumhur (-1.5 sets) @3.100

Herbert VS Kohlschreiber : Herbert @2.26

Chardy VS Giron : Chardy @1.361

Humbert VS Marterer : Humbert @1.531

Paire VS Gunneswaran : Paire @1.529

Klahn VS Jaziri : Klahn @2.25

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