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RE: Electric Vehicles Will Decimate Oil

in #technology7 years ago

Yes, but take a look at oil consumption. It would have took two minutes of Googling to figure this out.

Road vehicles are 45%. All petrochemicals constitute just 13%, which is plastics. Diesel generators constitute like 0.3% of worldwide electricity. The oil replaced from vehicles in power plants built using oil products is minuscule. For every barrel lost in road vehicles, maybe 1% will be replaced on the other end. It's non-existent.

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I did spend two minutes, and found five other graphs with different breakdowns of the usage %s. The only thing they agreed on was the 45% number for road use. I'm not going to argue that EVs haven't had an impact, but I don't think it's at the level you're suggesting. The last study I saw with a full report was dated 2010. EVs were in their infancy then, being in prototype and test stages at that point. All the manufacturers were trying to figure out if it was a viable strategy or not. It wasn't until Elon Musk came along with Tesla that we started to see people really begin to take EVs seriously.

It will be interesting to see how much of an impact they've had as their production and adoption has ramped up over the last seven years (with probably only the last five being meaningful).

I was agreeing with the previous poster that EVs aren't the only (and most likely not the most impactful) reason of the declining demand for crude. The main problem is that there are always a multitude of things impacting something as large scale as a worldwide crude consumption, but we always tend to get hyperfocused on the one thing that we either agree with the most or disagree with the most. That's the part I was talking about when I said there is a lot of misinformation on both sides of the argument.

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