[Clean Disruption] - Why Fossil Energy will be Obsolete by 2030 & The Future of Transportation
As speculators we need to understand technological disruptions that are going to happen on a massive scale in order to be able to position our portfolios accordingly and profit from those paradigm shifts.
Most people severely underestimate the impact electric vehicles and the business model of Transportation-as-a-service is going to have on the developed world (and eventually everywhere).
Internal-combustion vehicles are becoming obsolete much faster than the vast majority of people can imagine.
I highly recommend this 53 min. presentation Tony Seba gave in Oslo last year. It will be well worth your time:
There are four key technology categories that will disrupt energy and transportation:
- Batteries / Energy Storage
- Electric Vehicles
- Self-Driving Vehicles
- Solar Energy
Here is what the future looks like by 2030:
• All new vehicles will be electric
• All new vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving)
• Oil will be obsolete
• Coal, natural gas and nuclear will be obsolete
• 80+ per cent of all parking spaces will be obsolete
• Individual car ownership will be obsolete
• All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
The Clean Disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.
There is also a great report out by RethinkX, an independent think tank that analyzes and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society. It's called Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030
It analyzes the impacts of disruption, sector by sector, across the economy.
The investment implications are manifold and I'll look at some of them in future articles.
Thanks!
You're welcome. Thanks for commenting on my blog.
Oil ,coal, gas and nuclear obsolete ? Never ever in my opinion. (I will watch the video later maybe I comment again)
Hello lunix and thanks for commenting. Just maintaining the power grid costs about 7 Cents per kw/h. Over the long run the grid will become more decentralized and increasingly solar powered (plus maybe Blacklight power and LENR). I like Uranium as a speculation and hold a long postion as it has reached the point of maximum pessimism and can easily deliver a 10x+ return over the medium term. In the long run however nuclear is unlikely to be able to compete despite the recent developments in molten salt reactors and small modular designs. Definitely watch the video! You won't regret it.
Great insight. You know what I could still remember when Elon Musk decided to go after hybrid cars with the vision of going all the way electric, and people were laughing at his idea. Now look even Mercedez is making electric cars. And Tesla accounts for over 70% of electric cars distributed all over the world.
Now I wouldn't go out on a limb and say oil will be obsolete. Many, many mechanical, and electronic equipment responsible for production of raw materials are reliant on crude oil. So it would be a tough transition. If cars were a big goal, revolutionizing value creation processes and supply chains are like pluto level s***. Haha. I loove the way you see things. You know I learned quite a few things in psychology books, that's the making of a visionary bud. Great posts! Just followed you. Looking forward to more.
Hi ,really good stuff you are posting . 🙂
Thanks. I'm glad you like it. More to come...
Good to know that 🙂
I really agree with you about self driving cars and electrical, but from my point of view the timespan is to short. Maybe in 2040, ir even 2050.
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Massive thanks man, can see how much work and effort you have put here.
Intelect and mind over all, just watched video, interesting to listen.
Hope you doing good.
You're welcome. Thanks for taking the time to comment.