Chance to Daytrade Short Bitcoin for a Few Pips of Profit (2 to 1 reward to risk)steemCreated with Sketch.

in #technical-analysis8 years ago (edited)

Just so you know, a "Pip" is defined by Investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pip.asp) as follows:

The smallest price change that a given exchange rate can make. Since most major currency pairs are priced to four decimal places, the smallest change is that of the last decimal point-for most pairs this is the equivalent of 1/100 of one percent, or one basis point.

All the exchanges that I use to trade bitcoin measure out to the second dollar decimal, so a Pip in this case would be the equivalent value in cents ($44.00 would be 4,400 cents or 4,400 pips). With that out of the way...

Bitcoin Hourly Candle Chart for Coinbase Exchange:


Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8Q9wxZ11/

What You See on Chart

The red and green box near the right edge of the chart shows the stop (red) and target (green) area of my planned trade (the profit is about 4,500 pips, as I defined it, or roughly a $45.00 swing in bitcoin price).

NOTE: This is a SHORT trade, meaning that profit is made when the price depreciates.

The solid red line is the 50 hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the solid pink is the 200 SMA. The red dotted line is the closest structural (horizontal) resistance (price zone that has shown signs of selling pressure) and the green dotted line is the closest structural support (zone of buying pressure).

The three black arrows highlight the resistance level for the triple top pattern (more on this below).

Trade Pattern

This trade is designed off of one of my favorite "change of trend" (counter trend trading) setups: the double/ triple top + short on 61.8% retracement from the initial correction.

After a triple top (also works for double tops) has formed (price has failed to surpass a price on three separate attempts, each time having a number of candles that dip down before the next attempt), we wait for price to dip down one last time and then look to short at, or near, a 61.8% recovery (from this latest dip). The idea here is that the triple top shows "weakness" in the market (buyers failing to overcome selling pressure -- causing buyers to lose faith) and that the natural resistance that comes with this 61.8% recovery level will be too much to overcome for a fourth straight time.

Trade Plan/ Logic

Wait for a price pull-back to the closest structural resistance, which happens to have 61.8% retracement confluence (a 61.8% price recovery/ correction from a price swing is usually met with resistance -- "confluence", in this context, simply means that it's happening near the same price as another type of resistance, which, in theory, should make it an even more convincing/ stronger resistance level), to enter short.

Place the stop above the all-time price high, above $1,300 (an important "psychological resistance" level -- many traders tend to target whole dollar values, especially in increments of $100, to take profits).

Place target at the next major structure support. Reward to risk is just over 2 to 1.

SUGGESTION: When Trading Any Type of Market, Have a Plan, Based on your OWN Logic, and Know Your Risk!!!

Also, please be a strong person who can take responsibility for your own decisions. When you willingly put your own capital at risk, any loss you take on is solely on YOU, as you are the person who ultimately hits the "buy" button.

You're an Adult and I Refuse to Hold your Hand

What you see in this post is merely my opinion on what I consider to be a relatively sound trade opportunity, nothing more. Do your own research and have some knowledge before you go and start trading off of other trader's suggestions. Don't be a blind man following a stranger's words on how to traverse a busy highway. Don't be a fool, ya hear?

Be a Playa Like Me ;)

Deuces.



My Bitcoin-Based Stock Broker of Choice (referral link):

1Broker Banner

Note: you can be trading bitcoin with up to 10X leverage within an hour, by simply opening an account @ 1Broker (requires only an email verification) and funding it with bitcoin. No lengthy sign-up is required and your bitcoin is secure at the exchange since they keep more than 90% of all funds in cold storage and allow each user to set up "two-factor verification" for all transactions/ sign-ons.



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Target reached and then some :)

Happy trading :)

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