Bitcoin (BTC): The Weeks (Months) Ahead
Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken the long term downtrend on the daily time frame, reached a strong resistance at $10,000, and pulled back to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level around the $8,000 region. It has showed a nice bounce off this 0.618 support for the last 3 days. A small rally here could be in play.
It can also be seen the area between $7,400-$8,000 is where strong support lies. If BTC were to sustain its up move, staying within/above this area is crucial. Point to note is volume has been decreasing since February 2018.
What Happened
Consensus 2018 came and went without the rally many had expected. Lack of clarity over regulation and institutional custodial announcements were likely the reasons for the pull-back, not just for BTC, but the entire crypto market, shedding 100 Billion dollars in market cap in the process.
However, there was also positive news, with Nomura, a global financial services group partnering Ledger to offer institutional-grade cryptoasset custody service. I believe this will have a snow ball effect and bring the bigger players into the crypto space.
Outlook
Scenario 1 - BTC Bearish
If there is a bearish case for BTC, it would be a move down to the $8,000-$7,400 region. BTC could have a small rally to the psychological resistance $9,000 before moving lower and consolidating in the $8,000-$7,400 region. In this region, it would then be interesting to see whether the bigger players decide this is the bottom and step in.
Scenario 2 - BTC Bullish
Knowing how illogical markets can be, and the fact that the big plays are always happening behind the scenes, it would not be a surprise if this market come to life in the coming days/weeks. We could see volume spikes and BTC heading towards the $10,000 level. A consolidation at $10,000 and break-out here would be the clearest signal of the next bull run everyone (hodlers) is waiting for.
Disclaimer:
This is my personal view. I am not a financial adviser nor affiliated to any investment advisory. Your decisions are yours and yours alone. Do not listen to hear-say. Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
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