The key to long term success for any crypto project is winning global sentiment (data analytics)
Winning global sentiment is the key to long term success
In my previous post I titled: "Post Global sentiment analysis - public sentiment as the invisible hand behind democracy and how it relates to DPOS " I discussed the importance of global sentiment analysis. It's not enough just to analyze global sentiment but also important to do something with the results of that analysis. In this post I will suggest some ideas on what can be done and describe the importance of data analytics in the crypto space.
First some assumptions:
- Strategically the key to "long term success" of any big project (like Ethereum or Tezos) is to either be on the side of global sentiment or bring global sentiment on the side of the project. This is to say that going against global sentiment is not sustainable if the goal is mainstream adoption and maximum profit for token holders.
- Global sentiment analysis can be broken into subsections as there are many demographics who are stakeholders or who either positively or negatively will be influenced by the success of the project. All who will be influenced by the project must have their voices heard and sentiment tracked. This means for example if you are building self driving cars and you know from the data that a lot of people will be put out of work then it is important to track the sentiment of those who have something to lose from the success of the self driving car. The self driving car may be the better technology but the human beings accustomed to driving taxi's may not share the same sentiment as the human beings building the self driving car.
- Data driven decision making should be encouraged more in the crypto space as projects become bigger than the developers. A truly global crypto project on some level is owned by the world.
- Building for the world community rather than merely the "crypto community" requires an understanding of the sentiment and interests of the world.
What is the data driven approach?
The data driven approach requires capturing different data points. If we want to use an example we can think of different demographics of potential users as having unique sentiment scores. These scores would represent data points which can be useful for guiding the decision making process. For example, skateboarders in New Orleans could be a very influential demographic in crypto and they may be putting a lot of money into the project and or be very important to the mission of the project, and in this case the weight of their score could be higher.
Approval ratings are used to measure the public sentiment in the political space. Different politicians or different laws may have lower or higher approval ratings. These approval ratings could be represented in the crypto space as well and I would suggest as building for worldwide adoption becomes standard it will become appropriate to find out exactly what the world thinks of any particular feature, roadmap, approach, etc. If skateboarders in New Orleans are large holders in a project then they hold a lot of stake and the weight of their opinions should be reflected in decisions. At the same time, even some who do not hold tokens may have opinions which hold a lot of weight.
Regulator sentiment is going to be an important metric as well. What is the regulator approval rating for a particular feature or approach and how does it balance with the approval ratings of the rest of the demographics? Regulators hold a lot of weight because their decisions have a large impact on the project but at the same time the stakeholders who buy the tokens have a lot of weight because without these people the project cannot fund itself. The ability to map sentiment will allow developers to know what different demographics think about what they are doing and different solutions can then be mapped according to these metrics.
If we look at the political space we can see for instance that lawmakers cannot write whatever laws they feel like it. Lawmakers make their careers on public sentiment and if they violate the sentiment of their constituents too much they soon find out that their services are no longer needed. In essence the laws overall have to reflect the sentiment of their constituents or else. This requires that lawmakers (just like corporations) must truly understand their constituents and the only way to do this is by hiring data analytics companies which use data from social media and other places where it's collected for analysis by the latest techniques.
This ability of both politicians and companies to analyze data is one of the keys to being successful in politics and in business. In my opinion because crypto is going global and because certain decisions are political with the same dynamics, it is going to require the same level of data analytics that we see in political campaigns. There will also be conflicts between global sentiment and the sentiment of regulators such as we could see play out with regard to privacy but it is important that the sentiment on all sides be known. If the sentiment of regulators are known then project leaders can use the results of that analysis to predict future moves regulators could make in the response to some of their decisions and at the same time if global sentiment as a whole is known then developers will have a deep enough understanding of human needs to actually create to meet the supply for those needs.
Data analytics is under-rated in the crypto space
The ability to capture and analyze data is severely under rated in the crypto space. The first problem would be how to actually capture the data and analyze it? The data is pretty much everywhere so the main issue is how to process it in a way so that it can be analyzed to produce something useful for consumers of these results. In politics and in business the value of data analytics is well known and is in active use in marketing analytics and political campaigns. In design decisions data analytics is used by way of anonymous statistics to determine priority for how to structure the user interface. There are many other examples but a lot of high quality decisions are data driven decisions due to the fact that precise decisions typically require a lot of data analysis.
Technical decisions such as which compiler to choose or which data structure to go with are really the sort of problems best suited for developers to deal with amongst themselves. Advisors and others who are more technical can help with technical decisions but this is not the sort of decision which can scale with input from the crowd. The political or socially oriented decisions which are not technical on the other hand ultimately do get resolved by the crowd. While it may or may not be appropriate, we can look at the many Bitcoin forks and block size debate as an example of a political decision which emerged from a technical debate.
The political decision behind the block size debate ultimately in my opinion ended up being a question about whether Bitcoin should appeal to the world market or to it's original core demographic. The world market which includes potentially billions of users will require a Bitcoin which can scale up to support their use cases. In addition, the sort of Bitcoin which has unlimited use cases rather than just electronic cash is also likely to be more appealing to the world market. Ethereum currently appeals more to the world market and global user base than Bitcoin which is part of the reason why many predict Ethereum has more long term growth potential.
For Ethereum to be the decentralized world computer requires much more concern over global sentiment. It's not a single use case which means the world market will be involved. This means world politics not just local politics. It means global sentiment rather than just the sentiment of a small community. The crowd in my opinion will have a lot more influence over Ethereum and we saw a hint of this with the hard fork over The DAO. How will Ethereum developers take into account global sentiment and adapt their priorities to match it?
If we by contrast look at Steem we can see that Steem is very much influenced by American sentiment. It is not on the Asian exchanges and most of the big whales are from English speaking countries. The Steem ecosystem is global but in order for Steem to truly take it to the next level it has to diversify by a great deal and expand. In the long term Steem very likely will become a platform which must take into account global sentiment. EOS will allow Steem to scale to the levels necessary to become truly global but what impact will this have on developers? Will Steem implement data analytics not just for the developers but for bloggers as well? Will I as a blogger be able to track the information and metrics necessary to better appeal to my followers? There is a window of opportunity to add data analytics capability onto Steem because while Steem touts being open, and touts being transparent, there does not seem to be a lot of data analytics capability publicly available. Am I missing something?
Conclusion - understand the global sentiment to obtain mainstream adoption
The better developers, bloggers, and all who add value to a project understand global sentiment the easier it will be to achieve mainstream adoption. To truly understand what the users, the customers, the viewers want, is to better be able to provide to meet those needs. The new platforms which promise self amending ledgers will be geared toward maximum adaptability but all of that is useless if global sentiment is not captured and analyzed so as to know how to prioritize features. What features do the current users want and more importantly what features will the future users want? Predictive analytics will be the key in my opinion for figuring out resource allocation.
References
- https://martechseries.com/analytics/audience-data/the-importance-of-data-analytics-in-marketing-strategies/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_analytics
@dana-edwards analysis is the most important thing if you want to win not only the crypto market but also the stock market in general.you can win in the stock market if you can see the hints in the charts with accurate analyzes..
Exactly my point. It's all about data analysis because that is how you win. I don't understand why crypto space is not on the forefront of that. The ultimate question for any global product builder is what does the world want? Who is the user?
@dana-edwards I agree with you.I got steem from $4.5 last week to 3 weeks of analysis and I expect the price to be $ 8-8.5 in the coming weeks.I hope I'm not wrong.
The data for the growth of steemit is public. It should be apparent to anyone who looks at the numbers that the site drives away new users in droves. It's closely mirroring other pay to win games where <1% of users drive most of the economic activity and purchasing of in-game items and other temporary or permanent powerups. If you look at all of the app stores all of the top earners operate on such a model.
It is imperative that the steemit team and steem holders understand that the potential userbase of steemit could be much larger if they simply did the changes necessary to make it enticing to use for an average person. Most people do not want to nor need to be content producers for a social media platform to be successful. It's fine if a small percentage of the userbase actually produces content, but if content that users are exposed to does not interest them, or they are unable to participate in democratic processes of voting content they like because their delegated power is taken away in a month then they will not stay.
Not to be cheesy but they're very much missing the point of a million dollar company not being as sexy as a billion dollar company, to paraphrase the Timberlakeinator.
I think that anyone who wants to analyze the data from the site can do so, but no one wants to waste time when numbers are so thin. Big data operations are run on, well, big volumes of data, and we have a tiny trickle of it on any given day. If that is the main emphasis of the site in the future then it will be no different than any other social media site that sells out its users.
Giving people a nominal reward of some fantasybucks or dreamdollars should be enough of a deal-maker for most people, and that people's retention remains so low even though other sites don't offer that should be a clear indicator that many things on steemit are horribly broken for the moment.
There is scarcely any area where data analytics can't, or shouldn't, be applied!
SMTs I guess can be viewed as the answer to your challenges about how steem is taking it to the next level, diversifying, expanding? That remains to be seen.
Do you think Cardano, as a so-called third-gen blockchain, will do a better job of addressing global community concerns than btc and eth?
No I'm not convinced right now about Cardano. A lot of hype, but no product yet. Also Tezos will likely arrive first and there is no reason why I would think Cardano has any advantage over Tezos right now but who knows?
There is a great deal written in Why Cardano whitepaper about building an inclusive economy. And yet this large market cap project has been excluding me [as a Linux-based OS user] from their user base in the following ways:
There are smaller valuation projects than Cardano which do offer those functionalities.
I agree, data analytics is really limited here on steemit and there's nothing much you can do in terms of tracking data. Some sort of data analytics would be a fantastic addition to steemit. Data and metrics would give a hint what needs improvements from a blogger's point of view.
How can we content providers know if we are adding continued value to the platform if we don't track metrics? Additionally how do we improve on the value we add so as to add even more if we don't track metrics?
We have followers, we have upvotes, but do we really know the true sentiment? Do we really know exactly what each reader liked and disliked about our content? Do we know from that feedback on how to improve our content? There is a reason why content quality on Steem is slow to improve.
Exactly! I was even thinking of something like this yesterday. As I was checking out my google analytics, I thought how great it would be if we had something like that on Steemit to be able to track data and all the metrics. At the current moment, we can only speculate what the readers like and dislike, but we can't really live on speculations, can we?
You are writing amazingly many good articles in a short amount of time!
Congrats!
You are writing amazingly many good posts in a small amount of time!
Congrats!
Jamie Dimon, the cryptographer of global financial services company JP Morgan's boss, announced that they would dismiss any traders who roamed Bitcoin a few months ago, based on the controversy. It later turned out that he discovered that his company facilitated Bitcoin trade. Dimpo and others think that all the cheers around Bitcoin and a bubble bursting easily in explosive epic proportions, even among people who do not have much interest or knowledge in financial markets. So what if Dimon and the others are wrong? Rebecca Mqamelo observes this carefully thought-out piece: Although South Africa appears behind this trending trend, block chain technology provides a welcoming power for business activities across Africa. - Jackie Cameron
It takes a lot of effort and time. It is possible to check the infrastructure of Google and extract data analysis with algorithms. google uses it in many projects.
Mnuchin "One of the areas we will work very closely with the G20 is that it will not turn into Swiss bank accounts," he said, pointing to the G20's readiness to handle cyrpto currency controls. It is clear that decisions to be made at the G20 will not be useful for crypto coin. I will continue to videotape now. I left half the video to comment @dana-edwards
What is that quote from? That said, all data which is relevant should be analyzed no matter where it came from. The question to ask is why regulators fear Swiss bank accounts and what are the motivations of these regulators?
Regulators have their own missions, their own agendas, and they are a demographic. They are not the only demographic. The interests of regulators in my opinion should be considered and they should have a voice but their voice should be one of many. The function of regulators, such as why regulators exist (their core mission), if these are missions which the public accepts and wants to exist, then the crypto if it is to go mainstream must appeal to these missions.
What is the sentiment of the mainstream user? Where does the mainstream user fall on the question of privacy? The mainstream users might demand privacy and if global, then global sentiment might be dramatically in favor of privacy while a few regulators in a few countries might want to ban encryption. We simply do not have the data to really know which side ultimately has the support of global or even local sentiment.
So first we would have to find out what the people actually want. Do people want privacy or transparency and in what ways, how much, which features? Do the people fear more the risks of excessive secrecy or the risks of excessive transparency? Do the people care more about opportunities or avoiding risks? These are all important questions which require big data analytics to answer.
Everything is data analysis. I assume there is an analysis of the stock exchange order. The moves made by politicians have a great influence on stock markets. For example, Donald Tramp. We can evaluate these effects as job calls for data analysts. After that, the phase of the understanding from the recurrence takes place. We can not ignore the influence of politicians on the stock market.
For business life, profit and responsible behavior is like a two-faced mine of money. The Global Compact has helped change mentality in most countries, saying that profit and responsible behavior are two different issues at the same time.
And finally,we are now able to collect data from cross-horizontal industries to make more informed decisions. And it will change the world !! @dana-edwards
Excellent points, and we are for the most part in agreement, particularly on the point that regulators, while important, are not the only demographic to take into account.
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology appealed to me immediately, as a long term privacy advocate, and frankly I think that regulators are going to have a difficult time trying to "control" a decentralized market, try though they undoubtedly will.
This to me, is one of the most attractive things about blockchain, being simultaneously transparent and highly secure.
We're all in for a very interesting ride.
On a different note, I do recommend using more commas and punctuation in general, as it will make your posts far more readable, particularly for those for whom English is their second language.