Second week of Turkish offensive against Kurds in Afrin
The weather improves
Since Saturday afternoon the weather in Afrin started to improve. Thanks to that Turkish aircrafts appeared in the sky over Afrin once more. At the same time most of the roads in Afrin dried out which allowed heavy equipment to be deployed on the battlefields. In a flash many battles started to turn in favour of Turkish forces.
On Sunday of 28th January, after over week of heavy fighting, Turks managed to capture the hilltop of Basraya mountain. As a symbol of their victory they planted a Turkish flag over the highest bunker on the hill. Kurds were badly beaten and remains of their troops withdrew to the west – to Balfune mountain. On the same day Qastal village, which lays at the foot of the Basraya mountain, was captured by Turks.
As for now Turkish forces didn't storm the Balfune mountain yet. They didn't do this because there is a pass, over 700 m long, which separates Basraya and Balfune mountains. If Turks would attack it, without previous preparations, the storm would probably end up in a carnage of attackers. As for now Turks limit their activity in Balfune region to artillery shelling and airstrikes.
Far north
Kurdish situation in Bulbule region was already bad last week, but due to heavy fog and mud most of the Turkish heavy vehicles and aircrafts couldn't be used. Thanks to that Kurds were able to hold most of their defensive positions and moreover they were able to perform few succesful counterattacks. But when the weather worsened Kurds found themselves in a tragic situation.
On Wednesday, 31st January, Turks passed the border near Bak Ubasi village, located west of the Bulbule town. Kurds probably were surprised by this maneuver and didn't manage to hold invaders for long. Just before the nightfall, Turkish forces captured the villages of Bak Ubasi and Shankal. In the morning Turks resumed their offensive and in a matter of hours captured villages of Ali Kari and Zarah and were able to approach suburb of Bulbule. Panics started to spread in ranks of Kurdish fighters. The Kurdish leadership didn't expect Bulbule to be attacked from the west – this is why most of the Kurdish forces were located around Qurne village, east of Bulbule. Turks knew about this and immediately started storming Bulbule. Kurdish forces, still in Qurne, feared being encircled, so they started pulling out south. In matters of few hours Turkish forces were able to capture whole town of Bulbule.
After fall of Bulbule, Kurdish situation in northern part of Afrin doesn't look good. Bulbule served as a logistic center for Kurdish forces operating in the region. This loss means that now Kurds have to withdraw from N-W part of Afrin if they don't want to be encircled by Turkish forces.
Kurdish Afghanistan
Fights in Rajo area aren't stopping even for a moment. Turks still try to capture hills overlooking Rajo town, before storming the town itself. Kurds have put up heavy resistance, because they know that if they loose the hills surrounding Rajo, their fight for the city itself will be doomed to fail. Over the last couple of days Turks were able to capture hill 740 and at least half of hill 600. The main reason for slow Turkish advance is the mountainous terrain – due to that only infantry operates in that region. Although Turks tried to build some footbridges for light vehicles, but it turned into a fiasco when Turkish bulldozer was destroyed by Kurdish ATGM.
Further north Turks managed to archievie bigger success as they captured villages of Ma‘mal Ūshāghī, Şātī Ūshāghī oraz Khalīl Kūlkū. However these successes are local ones and not a deceisive breakthrough.
Kurdish Alamo falls
After many days of ineffectual attacks of Hemame village, Turks changed their tactics. Instead of another frontal attack, they tried to flank the town. For this purpose, on 28th January they passed the border north of Hemame and managed to capture Mirsedes hill in a swift maneuver. This hilltop allows to overlook whole of Hemame area. Next day, after heavy artillery shelling, Turks attacked Hemame from both – north and west – at the same time. This time Kurds didn't have a chance for a succesful defence. One Kurdish woman from YPJ militia, in the act of despair, blowed herself up next to the Turkish tank. https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/958341309756051456 - video of Kurds firing ATGM at forementioned dummy tank
Forementioned YPJ fighter
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Turkish attack of Hemame ended in a their decisive victory. Now Turks can start storming town of Cindirese which is a gate to Afrin. Attacking Cindirese will be very difficult, because Turks will have to attack across open ground while Kurds will hide in the heavily urbanized area. Turks are probably aware of that since their airplanes strike Cindirese since the day one of operation „Olive Branch”.
No pardon
In Afrin there was a statue of Abdullah Ocalan – leader of Kurdish terrorist organisation PKK. Although, the PKK is known for its controversial fighting methods, the PKK is considered by many Kurds as a very patriotic organisation and Ocalan himself is considered as a national hero. To lower Kurdish morale pilot of Turkish F-16 was ordered to bomb mentioned statue. The strike was succesful as you can see below.
In recent days a very brutal video video leaked. In this video pro-Turkish rebels are defiling corpses of Kurdish YPJ fighter. This video is too graphic to share it over here, however you can find it on official YPG account on Twitter.
Christian brothers from the east
Syriac Military Council – christian Assyrian militia which is a part of SDF – announced on monday, 29th January that their fighters will go to Afrin to fight the Turkish invaders. SMC consists of over 2000 men. However only part of them will go to Afrin, as Assyrians still take part in operations against IS in Deir Ezzor province. Although Assyrian support won't solely turn battle for Afrin in the favour of YPG, the arrival of battle hardened troops in Afrin will surely rise the morale of YPG and will also help to patch some holes in Kurdish defences.
Scarecrow
Over the last few days more and more videos of Kurdish ATGM attacks appear. YPG claims that thanks to this type of weapon they were able to destroy some Turkish vehicles. However, except for Turkish bulldozer and „baloon” there is no proof to back up these statements.
What is the story behind that „baloon”? Turks know that YPG have ATGMs so they started puting dummy tanks. In one particular case Kurds mistook the dummy tank for a real tank and fired at it. It was all filmed and you can watch it by clicking the link below. If Kurds don't get their scopes right ASAP it will be very hard for them to stop Turkish tanks heading to Afrin.
https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/958341309756051456 - link to a video showing Kurds firing at dummy tank
Kurdish air defence?
On 31st January, pro-Turkish rebel group named „Samerkand brigade”, which takes part in Operation „Olive Branch” shared a video of ghanima(spoils of war) captured from YPG. Among them there was a 9K38 Igla – soviet man-portable air-defense system(MANPADS). Before that video appeared there weren't any proofs that Kurds from Afrin have this kind of weapon. This rises some questions: Who handed MANPADS over to Kurds? Were they used against Turkish aircrafts? However there are no answers for this questions - at least for now.
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
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