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RE: U.S. Capital Market Review 1/5/18

in #stocks6 years ago

I think the U.S. economy can hasten its pace of growth a bit more this year, though don’t expect it to hit full stride. Employment conditions will remain central to the story, with the unemployment rate likely to dip below 4% for the first time in 17 years. Job growth should continue, but wage growth will likely become the key measure as diminished labor market slack should begin to push wages higher from their sluggish pace to this point in the expansion. This will be central to household spending - the lion’s share of U.S. GDP. A lift in business investment would be a welcome catalyst for economic growth, which should see a modest tailwind from newly minted tax reform. Tax-reform expectations were high, but now the proof will be in the pudding. I believe slightly faster GDP growth should allow the bull market to put another year in the win column, as recession signals still appear faint, and recessions are a typical ingredient for bear markets.

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Great points... personally, I think we will begin a recession and bear market in 2019.

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