Is the stock market going to crash or is everything 1 big lie!
The fundamentals are screaming hell yes! The fundamentals have been screaming this for a long time now, yet it goes higher. We all know it will all come crashing down sometime but the fundamentals are clearly not a accurate way to judge when anymore. The news, politics, social events, world events, consumer spending, business reports, financial economic data, and the list goes on, is constantly changing how investors are treating this market almost every minute that it is open. Its like nothing is predictable anymore through good old research and technical analysis. I think there is a big boom coming before a crash and I want in on it! I think this because there is too much news out there calling for a crash. That means everybody has the same mainstream information. I've been noticing a lot of alternative media becoming like the mainstream media they once hated so much. If everyone is armed with the same false information, then that tells me to move in the opposite direction.
When everyone else is getting on board, its time to get off, and take your profit. Or, when everyone is being greedy be scared, when they are scared be greedy.
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Central bank determined interest rates make it so that asset prices go up, in general, by default.
By having interest rates artificially low, it is much cheaper to buy assets on margin. Your assets don't have to rise as much in price for you to make a profit on your leveraged trade. That further causes more money to come in to make profit this way, which results in rising prices, which creates profit for the original traders.
In a normal market, shorts would keep this in check. Any time the assets get too overpriced, traders can reign them in with shorts, forcing leveraged longs to close and make a profit doing it. However this requires some kind of balance between the cost of borrowing money (involved in a leveraged long) vs. the cost of borrowing assets (involved in a short). When interest rates are set low by a central bank, it becomes cheaper to borrow money and more expensive to borrow assets.
Let's say there is an equivalent amount of capital going long vs. short at a particular time. And let's say the market doesn't move much after these trades are made, it's stable for now. The longs can wait out the lack of action. Their money is cheap, so they are not incurring major costs by waiting. By comparison the cost of shorts are very high, and they cannot afford to wait or they take a big loss. Rather than wait, they close, which allows the longs to profit by default.
Both longs and shorts as a result contribute to rising prices in this kind of market environment, where shorts should correct market excesses otherwise. Ironically the time when prices really do finally fall is when almost nobody is short any more.