Stock market meltdown and oil crisis

In the first quarter of 2020, the world's progress bar was speeded up.

According to the originally planned plot, Trump should continue to hold a gun against Powell's head, driving the U.S. stock market crisis and the U.S. corporate debt problem in July to the November election. Red-necked nationals accelerated their withdrawal from the Middle East and dispatched troops to the Asia-Pacific region. They continued to open their eyes and closed their eyes on the corruption situation of the military-industrial complex in Afghanistan and Iraq. Defeating Biden's political challenge will continue to let go of reducing military spending overseas, slowly releasing the crisis, and fighting for the United States to escape before the bubble bursts.

But the script was modified by the sudden new crown epidemic and the plunge in oil prices.

The origin of the new crown virus is still unknown, and it began circulating on the Internet that it originated from the Army's Top Secret Medical Institute for Infectious Diseases in Fort Detrick, Maryland, USA. This study studied all 900 employees. The equipment was shut down urgently. In October, the deputy director of the CIA organized a 201 global epidemic exercise. It is said that Jinyintan Hospital treated four or five patients during the military games (not verified, this information is for reference only). In November, China began to find unknown Pneumonia followed by national relief in China and a global epidemic broke out in February.

Since the 1918 world flu was indeed a major outbreak after the Americans brought them into Europe-I am a bit skeptical because the continent of the Americas brought a new virus, and people on other continents would have no antibodies to cause such terrible deaths. Data, just like the virus brought by Europeans killed a large number of Indians. Because of the previous record, coupled with the closure of Fort Detrick and the deletion of network information, the United States is currently unable to escape suspicion.

Since there is no evidence of this, we are just waiting and watching for the time being. I said in the previous article that the epidemic has always been suspected. It happened in other countries. It may really be passed as severe flu. Responsibility is not that heavy, big deal. I resigned for a new ruling party, but China is a big government, there are no substitute players, huge powers and responsibilities. When the epidemic spreads, I will use the national mobilization method. I would rather lose a lot of economic data. Before the epidemic hit Wuhan, I did n’t know how many tens of thousands of people had flowed to all parts of the country before Wuhan closed the city. Only by screening various capillaries such as transportation, hotels, urban communities, and so on, did we slowly control the epidemic, such as in Shenzhen, entering the city All the entrances of the vehicle must be carefully inspected. Each person must report detailed personal information on the WeChat QR code. The vehicles that have been inspected will be issued green labels. Every office and shopping mall will be registered and measured for temperature. In case the source of infection can be found at any time.

In the context of this national mobilization, the new data in Wuhan has now dropped to single digits, and the provinces are often zero. Most of the new cases found are coming from abroad. Looking at the current situation, it is very close to defeating the epidemic. Already.

If you think about it a little deeper, you will find that Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and North Korea are well controlled. These are countries within the Confucian cultural circle. The nationals of the Confucian countries are relatively mild, and they do not question the government so strongly. Relatively controllable, but some people have questions. Isn't Korea also a Confucian cultural circle? Why South Korea's outbreak is worse than other countries.

This is a good question. I often say that learning knowledge should be learned and learned. The Korean example is a good sample of learning and utilization. South Korea does still retain a certain Confucian culture, but everyone should note that the main infections in South Korea The crowd was Xintiandi, a cult with the signature of Christ. At least 4,482 cases of people infected in South Korea were related to Xintiandi. These pretenders said that they would not be infected outdoors in the early outbreak. This was the original Confucian culture circle. Some evil spirits are rampant in South Korea, breaking the cultural heritage of South Korea, and the bad situation of the Korean epidemic is caused by the government's inability to cure these evil spirits.

I believe that without these Christian cults, the epidemic in South Korea would be well controlled.

This problem is even more difficult in Europe and the United States, because Europe and the United States are small governments. The mobilization power of small governments in peacetime is much weaker than that of large governments. Moreover, the programs that affect the people's freedom of life are easily questionable. Adopted a different style from China, the major government and the Confucian cultural circle (some of the larger government) countries, the main battle faction is the main battle faction, the main war faction is the main isolation, control each capillary of the society, one dose The medicine continued and the cure began in a few months. The European and American countries are now the master and faction. The master and faction's method cannot be completely isolated because the people of small governments have not agreed. For example, the British government today (March 13) According to the announcement, there are about 5,000-10,000 infected people in the country now, but schools and Congress work as usual. The attitude of the masters and factions is that the new crown is invincible. Then we only take care of the critically ill patients. The entire country slowly suppresses the new crown virus and coexists for a long time. Anyway, 80 % Of patients will heal themselves.

Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at a press conference in Berlin on March 11 that seven German adults may be infected with the new crown, which scared the audience for a moment. Why is this attitude of Merkel? Why does the British government still not close schools? Why don't other serious European and American countries wear masks now? The main reason is because they are the main faction. They adopt the tactic of "no fear even if infected with most people, we only treat the severely ill." The main faction is the choice of small government, while the main faction is the Government's choice.

I have been saying that if the new crown occurs in a small government country as soon as possible, it may be treated as a severe flu (you are a bit skeptical that the United States may have happened and that ’s it), and look at the reactions of European countries. Now this situation is similar to the treatment of severe flu. It doesn't seem to make much difference.

If it weren't for the dramatic treatment of the epidemic in China, most countries probably don't value this epidemic.

However, we do not have to worry too much about others. In the European and American countries, this set of social concepts is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The Chinese love to eat salty, and the European and American people like to eat sweet. There is no right or wrong for these things, respect each other.

U.S. stocks continued to rise slowly during the outbreak of China, and now it has been blown out twice in a few days. It is unheard of in history. The epidemic is one of two major reasons. China is the main battlefield to treat the epidemic. The harmony of the faction will lengthen the timeline of the epidemic war, so I personally conclude that the US stocks have to fall, because Europe and the United States have not yet ushered in a real outbreak period, and the epidemic will last longer than China.

Now in Europe and the United States, the number of Italian infections has exceeded 15,000, and the number of deaths has exceeded one thousand. It has become the country with the worst epidemic situation outside China. The high number of deaths in Italy has special national conditions. Italy has a serious ageing, with 14 million elderly people. 22% of the population, when they meet, they will hug each other, stick to their faces, etc. It will spread quickly and easily. Now that Italy is awake, I watch the video posted by the Chinese in Italy today. Italy has finally started to wear a mask. Without long memory, the people finally began to respect science.

However, other countries outside Italy still do not wear masks. Their cultural environment believes that only severely ill people wear masks and develop this cognitive habit. In order to worry about causing panic, the messages sent by various governments are also washing hands frequently. You do n’t need to wear a mask. It looks like this stand is ready to be carried hard. It is estimated that it will be changed until it is beaten like Italy.

Fortunately, China has now started to provide assistance to these countries. Professional medical personnel in various provinces will launch point-to-point rescues. Jiangsu is responsible for Pakistan, Sichuan is responsible for Italy, Shanghai is responsible for Iran, Guangdong is responsible for Iraq, and China is now rich in one province. Rescue experience and professional medical staff will draw friendly neighbors with the great feelings of the community of human destiny.

The day before yesterday, Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States, spoke to the House Oversight Committee, saying that some Americans who appeared to have died of influenza in the early stage were positive for New Coronavirus in the post-mortem diagnosis. If it turns out that the virus did come from Fort Detrick this time, and China finally made a huge sacrifice for the global fight against the epidemic, the beacon of this world is probably no longer bright.

The play of the European and American leaders and factions destined them to fight the epidemic for a long time. The longer the time, the greater the threat to US stocks.

In addition to the epidemic, the fatal blow to US stocks was oil prices.

As the world ’s largest manufacturing power has been fighting the epidemic for the past two months, and launched a copy of the “mobilization of the whole nation” of the big government, production has stopped for a short period of time, and the stagnation of production will also stagnate animal flows. At that time, China was busiest You ca n’t see a few cars on the Guangshen high-speed highway (now restored to crossing the river like a sturgeon, and truck drivers are driving fast, as if trying to grab back the lost time). Global oil prices will inevitably fall. About a month ago, Putin had a meeting with high-level officials. When he said a statistic, I was very impressed that Russia could afford a price of $ 40 a barrel of oil. At the beginning of the year, the oil also ran to $ 66. Barrels, which shows that Russia had psychological expectations at that time and was ready to carry low oil prices.

Then there is the story that everyone knows. Saudi Arabia saw that the world's oil prices have become such a ghost. No, our oil-producing countries must quickly hold a meeting to reduce production to raise oil prices. Lao Tzu ’s government budget is in deficit every year. It ’s almost time for dinner, so OPEC (the OPEC, the Saudi-led oil organization) had a meeting with Russia last week to discuss reducing the oil output by 1.5 million barrels a day, so that everyone would not lose their blood, and all of them did not make a profit. To money.

After this meeting, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in production, and then the price of oil began to plummet. US stocks also melted on Monday. Because the US stocks fell too horribly, they melted again on Thursday. Three times in history, those of us have witnessed two lively within a week. Secondly, this is a real living hell, and then the Internet is full of conspiracy theories. Some say that the United States is playing Chess, some are that the Eastern Powers are playing Chess, and some are that Russia and Russia are playing Chess. All the chess ran out, and the crowd couldn't figure out which way to believe.

Let me talk about my own views on international political events. My views are not necessarily correct, but my views can be used as a reference for everyone.

The first point I want to make is that, in fact, there are many major events in international politics, and most things should be said. They are not what many people think of "thinking far and wide," unless this matter is a very mature system in itself. The vast majority of incidents in the world are actually seen as tricks. For example, Erdogan is holding a refugee and begging the European Union. This is a typical trick. Erdogan just wants to eat a card, and also lets European countries do not fucking rob the resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. I only help Greece not to help myself, nor to contribute money to Idlib in Syria, I will give you a trick, let young and strong refugees enter the EU, and I will keep it without giving money or giving political benefits. Disgusting you.

This is our common international political event. The little prince made a move, Merkel and Macron returned a move. After reading the cards played by the other prince, the little prince made another move. Although there is an ABC alternative, it is not a conspiracy. s.

Even if there are ambitious and superb political strategies, they are also highly maneuverable. For example, Reagan's strategy to suppress the Soviet Union. Most of the problems are in controllable ideas, and they are implemented quickly and simply, such as not allowing Western European countries to give the Soviet Union. For a loan or the like, a strategy that is not too long and not too many people make a decision is a controllable strategy.

Any strategy that is too long must be problematic, because the world is full of accidental factors. For example, we often see complicated killing layouts in Sherlock Holmes and Conan. Sherlock Holmes can often get clothes from each other. The details of the judgment of the other person's personality, the story in the book so he guessed, in fact, in real life, this hit rate is only about 30%, the real life is the smartest old fox can judge the general trend of one thing, But I don't know where the details will happen.

For example, a super old fox like Buffett can only judge when the stock market is about to go wrong, but do n’t know what day or month.

I personally do not believe that everything is a conspiracy theory. It is easy to expose the plot if the front is too long. Most of the international political palace fights still see tricks, most of them are conspiracy, that is, the opponent played this card. Knowing that you have no choice, you can only brace yourself. For example, the European Union was annoyed by the little prince, and today promised to give refugees who arrived in the Greek peninsula before January 1st 2,000 euros each to call them home. This is a typical example of the two parties dismantling each other and leaving some time for thinking.

Things can be deduced, but they cannot be accurately calculated, which is the basic respect for logic.

Why do I personally feel that there is no conspiracy theory behind the slump in oil prices? There are two key points. One is that Russia has the right to decide on this matter, because Russia, which was actively sought by Saudi Arabia, said that we would reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day and carry oil prices up. When Russia decides to reduce it, Russia ’s attitude is It can be repeated, and Russia's connection with China is too deep, the interests behind it are too great, and the initiative is easily lost. Second, each country has its own alliance of historical and political interests. Saudi Arabia mainly stands in the United States. Russia still has NATO's eyes and thorns. The relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia is to be polite and not tortured. If Russia and Saudi Arabia suppress the United States Shale oil, where is the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia? Without the United States protecting Saudi Arabia in the Middle East you can't play Iran in minutes. If the United States wants to drive down the oil price to plunder the capital market, firstly, Saudi Arabia's losses are too large, and secondly, the subsequent layout line is too long, and the operation process is very difficult to control. Mature politicians generally value the success rate of doing one thing. High-risk operations will not be easily bet on the National Games.

I ca n’t play it with others, but I can surrender as quickly as France. It ’s so exciting to gamble on the National Games. The world has also played a few times like Japan ’s death. Do n’t try it easily.

Again, if there are really masters playing big chess, the strategy at the same time will not be too long, there will not be too many related points, each strategy point must also be short and fast and controllable, otherwise it is easy to roll over in real life.

Personally, I am more inclined. This time, it is the plunge in oil caused by grabbing market share.

Of course, my point of view is also for reference only. I suggest that readers don't superstitize anyone and don't superstitize me. It is most important to look at and think more to form your own knowledge system.

Russia ’s view is that the epidemic may have passed in a few months, and maybe two months have passed. If we reduce our production, we are reducing our market share, and we will not agree.

Russia's "News" reported on the 9th that after the talks on both sides collapsed, Saudi Arabia announced that it would lower the official export price of crude oil at all levels. Its national oil company, Saudi Aramco, offers European, Far East, and American customers discounts ranging from $ 6 to $ 8 per barrel of crude oil on the 8th in order to attract foreign refineries to purchase Saudi crude oil, the largest discount in more than 20 years.

In addition to madly cutting prices to grab the market, Saudi Arabia is also planning to increase production and grab the market in April. Saudi Arabia originally produced 9.7 million barrels per day of oil. It is expected that April to 10 million barrels per day. The first two days also threatened to increase production to 12.3 million in April. Barrels every day, in fact, this is also shouting to Russia, which means that you do not play to reduce production? If you do n’t play, I ’ll hit the price of oil again, I ’m not afraid to hurt.

The global oil price fell to 31.43 US dollars a barrel, a drop of nearly 1/3.

Russia is not weak, saying that it is afraid of hair. Lao Tzu ’s Ministry of Finance has a 150 billion wealth fund that can be used in the case of long-term low oil prices. It can withstand a price of 25-30 US dollars per barrel for 6-10 years. When OPEC's younger brothers Nigeria and other countries saw that Russia would never shrink, they also decided to increase production. Now everyone will die together, which will cause oil prices to fall like this.

My personal point of view is that the sharp drop in oil prices was caused by the outbreak of the civil war caused by the failure of the interests of oil-producing countries. Russia said in June that it would participate in OPEC meetings. It is estimated that everyone will be tired by then. There will be some changes in oil prices.

However, the sharp drop in oil prices caused panic in the market. The United States melted for the second time in Monday ’s history. On Thursday, Trump announced that European countries other than the United Kingdom would not come to the United States again. The market felt that the threat of the epidemic was more serious and panic again than expected, so we are fortunate. Witnessed two blowouts in American history in a week.

The US stock market fell sharply this week, in fact, it is still because it is inherently problematic. Everyone knows that it is fat and leaks at the first poke. When the two things of epidemic + oil price go together, US stocks leak. You see, our big A-shares are very calm. For many years, it was around 3000. The A-shares have already died almost. There is no room for death. So the people outside are suddenly dead, but the A-shares are very excited. Has been dying, people in China have been surprised.

However, this epidemic will indeed have a great impact on the economy of the United States and the world, especially when it broke out on Thursday. The Federal Reserve announced a new rescue plan at about 11 o'clock, but the market did not buy it and rose a small amount. Yes, it began to plummet again, fell to 2352 points in a day.

Now the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 21200 points, which is getting closer and closer to 18,000 points when Trump took office, and Trump is panicking.

In fact, it is not just US stocks that have fallen. Almost all major global stock markets have fallen into panic during this period. European stock markets have also fallen by about 30% in recent times. Asian countries are also mourning. Only A shares have remained calm like a dead person.

And every time the United States goes to the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but now there is little room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Any further reduction is negative interest rates. Of course, one-third of the countries in the world are already negative interest rates or zero interest rates. This is really a bad time.

The last time it was so miserable was 2008, but this time it may be even worse than 2008. It should be the global economic crisis now, but the crisis shock wave will not hit the ordinary people so quickly, so ordinary people will not feel it for the time being.

By the way, we always talk about crisis, crisis, and organicness. This phrase should actually be taken apart. Whether it is an individual, family, business, or country, if there is cash flow, it is an opportunity. If there is no cash flow, it is Dangerous.

Individuals, families, businesses, and nations without cash flow will be reaped by cash flow during the crisis.

Now it is time to fasten the pockets of cash flow to ensure the healthy operation of personal or corporate assets. According to this situation, it is not the worst time, because the issue of U.S. corporate debt broke out around July, and November was the US election. I don't know if Trump can survive November.

The progress bar of the world has been turned up.

According to the script of the world, it will take some time for the United States to erupt before the crisis, and it will not be so tragic now. I personally predict that the United States will slowly decline, and some country in the East will sooner or later surpass the United States in total, but it will take a long time. Time, now this situation, it may be shortened. (Speaking to me is India)

There was a rain in the sky, the first runner running ahead slipped, and the second runner may overtake.

According to the epidemic situation and oil price situation analyzed earlier in this article, the two major factors that determine the sharp decline in the US stock market (the third largest factor if Sanders is unexpectedly out of line) will continue to deteriorate. The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still in The climbing phase should reach its peak in 1-2 months, and oil prices are likely to reach Russia's psychological bottom line of $ 25-30.

Therefore, the US stock market will fall! It's definitely not the bottom line now.

We are now more and more understanding of what is a global community of shared destiny and what is a major change that has not occurred in a century.