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RE: A new puzzle about daily STEEM production (yes, really.)

in #steemtalklast year

After three days, it has drifted a little bit low. But not too much considering that burned beneficiary rewards have been about 1000 per day. I guess it's off by about 300 STEEM per day.

Starting values: 76462772 487895152.216 503395.264 487391756.952000
Last values: 76545870 488150878.291 524715.962 487626162.329000
Total change: 83098 255726.075000 21320.698000 234405.377000
New STEEM per block: (# blocks):83098 (Virtual Supply):3.077403 (rewards pending):0.256573 (Virtual Supply - Rewards Pending):2.820831
New STEEM per day: (# blocks):83098 (Virtual Supply):88629.206400  (rewards pending):7389.302400 (Virtual Supply - Rewards Pending):81239.932800

I definitely need to find some time to link these numbers up better with the reward pool numbers from get_reward_fund. Hopefully, Steemit will fix [that link](https://steemdb.io/api/funds) in SteemDB so I can pull it into PowerBI.
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During the last 20 days, the pending_rewarded_vesting_steem value declined from 524K to 506K, ~900 per day. None of this seems to be documented (outside of code) - and I'm not sure of the exact mechanism, but if I'm surmising right, there would have been a corresponding slowdown in virtual_supply growth(?).

Interesting thought. The question is whether there is really a relation.
At the moment, I have also found no indication in the code that this has an influence on virtual_supply.

Unfortunately, I have not yet made any progress with the evaluation of my records. I won't be able to do so in the next few days either... we'll stay tuned :-)

Missed blocks? My formula for predicted STEEM per day assumes 20 * 60 * 24 = 28,800 blocks per day, but that's not what I'm seeing if I look at the first block number from each day. The difference accounts for about 495 STEEM per day. If a block gets missed, do those STEEM get added to a later block, or are they just gone?

Between 500 a day for missed blocks and 900 per day burned, that could get us pretty close to closing the 1,650 gap.

image.png

Are we really seeing an average of 159 missed blocks per day? Apparently yes - or close to it. My numbers don't match those exactly, but they're not far off. I had thought that disabled witnesses were excluded from block validation, but that seems not to be the case... So, in some sense, the disabled hive witnesses are helping us by reducing inflation?

Update:

I guess this is the difference. The ones that still have valid signing keys are still getting scheduled. When the witnesses page showed them as disabled, I had assumed that their signing keys were invalidated. They're not really disabled, just AWOL.

$ ./get_witness_by_account.sh -w abit | jq -S . | grep signing_key
    "signing_key": "STM6KNYPwdsFjvvJATBYYk2qaXB9gKWTfbLUf52EcYAGejuWijdnk",
$ ./get_witness_by_account.sh -w scissor.sisters | jq -S . | grep signing_key
    "signing_key": "STM57ACN7dVLaxCjRcvFNj6ALMUderJXVVEANWEhZgeyriuBA6yER",
$ ./get_witness_by_account.sh -w marcosdk | jq -S . | grep signing_key
    "signing_key": "STM1111111111111111111111111111111114T1Anm",
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It's definitely not as simple as I was thinking. Virtual supply and pending rewards don't seem to move together. Now I'm thinking it's related to the size of the overall rewards pool (rewardBalance), instead of just the pending rewards. Unfortunately, with SteemDB's funds API broken, matching those numbers up will be more challenging, and I haven't had much time to spend on it.

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