Scientific view on Economic Recession, Food Insecurity and the Emergence of Genetically Modified Foods in Nigeria

This is a review i have done to show the aftermath of the Economic recession experienced by Nigeria on food security and the illegal inflow of Genetically modified Foods.

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Abstract

Nigeria plunged into recession in 2013 when the price of crude oil, the major revenue of the Government greatly declined from $118 per barrel to below $50. This affected almost all sectors of the country, the most hit being food security. Food insecurity is the inability of people to have access to adequate food because of instability in food production, food price increases and income shortfalls. Biotechnology, which made use of Genetically Modified Foods (GMFs), was adopted as an alternate source to boost agricultural production and to ensure Nigeria’s food security. However, the recent illegal and unregulated importation of GM Foods have raised a concern of the safety of these products as the food had found its way into the market without prior knowledge of the agencies responsible for its regulations.

1. Introduction

Food is any substance that is being eaten or drank in order to maintain life and growth. It is a basic necessity of life and its adequate intake in terms of quality and quantity is a key to a healthy and productive life (FAO, 2012). Healthy eating involves consuming a well balanced diet (a diet consisting of the proper quantities and proportions of foods needed to maintain health or growth) and if the body does not get those nutrients, it can develop health problems (FAO, 2012).

According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (2009), the World population is expected to grow by over a third, or 2.3 billion people, between 2009 and 2050 and nearly all of this growth is forecast to take place in the developing countries and among which sub-Saharan Africa’s population (such as Nigeria) would grow the fastest. The implications of these trends means that market demand for food would continue to grow, therefore, feeding an increasing population would require raising overall food production especially of several key commodities such as cereals, livestock and dairy products.

As predicted by the FAO, Nigeria’s population skyrocketed from year to year from 155,207,145 in 2009 to 186,987,563 in 2016 which also resulted into higher demand for food. However, since Crude oil sales account for 70% of Government income, the country started sliding towards recession in 2013 when the price of crude oil began rolling downwards from $118 per barrel till below $50 as at 2016 which resulted in the decline of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by -2.06 per cent in the second quarter of 2016 (RTC ASL, 2016)

Nigerians have continued to experience some of the consequences of this recession such as high inflation rate, job loss, unemployment, decrease in sales of goods and services, decline in income, dependence on importation, budget deficit in government spending, decline in the stock market, high cost of living, high interest rates, poor infrastructural supply, decline in purchasing power, food insecurity etc.

Food security was one of the worst hit during this period of economic recession. According to FAO, food security exists when all people at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy life (FAO, 2009) . However, the current recession being experienced in Nigeria has plunged the nation into food insecurity since it is certain that there is a decline in access to adequate food because of instability in food production, food price increases and income shortfalls.

To bridge the gap of food availability and demand; and to augment the locally produced food products, several importation of food products from neighboring countries and abroad were observed. On Tuesday, December 22, 2016, the Nigerian Custom Service reported it intercepted 102 bags of a particular Rice brand and claims that the rice seized in Lagos, a major city in Nigeria was a ‘plastic rice’. However, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) later reported that the “suspected fake rice” also said to be plastic rice was contaminated rice but not plastic rice. They explained that based on the laboratory test result, the product is not plastic rice but rice contaminated with microorganisms above permissible limit and does not conform to NAFDAC pre-packaging food labeling regulations 2005.

Several other Genetically Modified Food products were also reported to have been found in shopping malls across Nigeria in which Agency in charge of GMF regulation frowned at and gave the order to remove immediately within seven days. Over time, Nigerians had frustrated the move by the Government to pass the bill allowing the deployment of GMF to the country. Hence, the need to re-evaluate Genetically Modified Foods, its safety for consumption and its emergence in Nigeria due to Food Insecurity in a time of Economic recession.

1. Brief Description of Nigeria

2.1 Geography

Nigeria (9.0820° N, 8.6753° E) is located in the tropical zone of West Africa. It is bordered to the west by Benin, to the northwest and north by Niger, to the northeast by Chad and to the east by Cameroon, while the Atlantic Ocean forms the southern limits of Nigerian territory. It has a total area of 92377 (1000 ha) with a land area of 91077 (1000 ha), agricultural area of 70800 (1000 ha) and forest area of 7402.6 (1000 ha) (FAO UN, 2016). Land cover ranges from thick mangrove forests and dense rain forests in the south to a near-desert condition in the northeastern corner of the country.

2.2 Population

Nigeria is by far the most populous country in Africa. With its 182 million people, it accounts for over one-seventh of the total population of Africa’s 54 countries (FAO UN, 2016). The population density of 197 inhabitants per km² is also high, being almost five times the population density for Africa as a whole. Annual growth rate during 2005-2015 is about 2.7 percent and 52 percent of the population is rural, which is the same as 10 years earlier (FAO UN, 2016).

2.3 Economy

The Nigerian economy is highly dependent on oil revenues, which account for about 90 percent of total exports and for nearly 75 percent of government revenues (WB, 2014). The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at US$569 000 million in 2014 and the contribution from agriculture was 20 percent. Agriculture provides occupation to 31 percent of the economically active population in 2007 (WB, 2014) and is thus the largest employer in the country, especially considering the fact that 45 percent of the economically active population are unemployed (WB, 2014).

2.4 Agriculture

Nigerian agriculture, however, remained until recently largely uncompetitive in major crops when compared with international markets (NSB, 2014) and required large food imports. Farming systems are mainly smallholder-based and agricultural landholdings are scattered. Simple, low-input technology is employed, resulting in low-output labour productivity. A typical farm holds an average of 2.5 plots of 0.5 ha each (NSB, 2014).

The major crops produced are rice, cassava, yam, maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut. The country is self-sufficient in most basic staples such as cassava and yam, but it is still heavily dependent on import of processed agricultural products, particularly rice, wheat, sugar, livestock products and fish (FMWR, 2014).

3 Economic Recession and Food Insecurity

3.1 History of Global Economic Recession

Economic Recession according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is defined as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real Gross Domestic Products, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. It is a period of economic slowdown featuring low output, illiquidity and unemployment.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (2012), the history of economic recession is as old as the history of humanity itself, dating back to the 3rd Century till this period. Economic recession in the 3rd Century was the period of a Military Anarchy also known as imperial crisis (AD 235-284), during which the Roman Empire came close to collapse as a result of economic depression, civil crisis, invasion and diseases. Since that time, the world has been experiencing a form of economic crisis with different nomenclature such as economic meltdown, economic decline, economic stagnation, economic downturn, economic depression, economic recession etc.

The 14th century economic crisis stemmed more or less from the banking crisis, when the Bardi family and Peruzzi family lent Edward III of England a total of 1,500,000 gold florins which he failed to repay. The situation led to the collapse of the two family banks. The economic downturn experienced in the 15th Century saw the Bardi family (operating in various European Centres) playing a notable role in financing some of the early voyages of discovery to America, including those by Christopher Columbus and John Cabot (Guidi-Bruscoli, 2012). Besides Edward III of England, other notable rulers were indebted to the Bardi family and most of them defaulted.

The economic recession of the 17th century was as result of a Dutch prosperous era, during which the price for the supply of bulb (from Tulip mania or Tulipomania) rose to a very high level and then suddenly collapsed. Recession in the 18th century started with the stock price bubble of the South Sea when the share rice crash affected many people at the time and reduced the value of the national economy. In the 19th century, there was the post-Napoleonic depression known as post-war economic depression in Europe. In England, an agricultural depression led to the passage of the Corn Laws and placed great strain on the system of poor relief inherited from Elizabethan times. A major peacetime crisis was the Panic of 1819 that resulted in a financial crisis in the US and general collapse of the US economy over three years (CBN, 2012).

In the 20th century, there was the Panic of 1907 (1907 Bankers’Panic or Knickerbocker Crisis) in the US, where the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) fell by over 50 per cent from the peak it attained in the previous year. The panic occurred during economic recession, and resulted in several runs on banks and trust companies. Other crises in the century include the black Monday (October 19, 1987) where stock market around the world crashed within a short space of time, the Mexican economic crisis (1994) caused by the sudden devaluation of the peso, and the Russian financial crisis (August 17, 1998) similar to that of Mexico.

In the 21st century, there was the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which started in 2007, caused principally by the housing bubble in the US that peaked in 2006. The complex interplay of policies that encouraged home ownership, providing easier access to loans for (lending) borrowers, overvaluation of bundled sub-prime mortgages based on the expectation that housing prices would continue to escalate triggered the crisis. The 2009 economic meltdown, which was said to have arisen from over reliance on market mechanism by the George Bush administration of the United State through unregulated credit expansion in the financial sector, particularly credit to home owners was felt by the world especially the African continent (Fapohunda, 2012).

3.2 Economic Recession in Nigeria

The Nigerian Economy was doing well not until 2013 when the country started sliding towards recession due to the price of crude oil which began to roll downwards from US$118 per barrel. The process continued throughout 2014, which was the first year since 1995 when average crude oil price fell below the benchmark used for the annual budget. By the second quarter of 2015, it was clear to keen observers of the global market that crude oil prices would stay below the US$50 per barrel mark for a long time. Furthermore, the supply of crude oil which was pegged at 2.2 million barrels per day was not realizable for various factors such as pipeline vandalism in the oil producing states, oil bunkering, theft, and chiefly, a glut in the global market. Government revenue begins to fall below projections by far and dollar scarcity was inevitable.

Several other factors noticed to have fuelled this recession were Oil Dependency (as Crude oil sales account for 70% of Government income), Government Low Sovereign Savings, gradual decline in Foreign Reserves (decline to $30bn in 2015 from over $65bn in 2007), Excessive spending by the Government (e.g funding of 2015 general elections), Fiscal Leakages and Corruption, Governance Vacuum (No cabinet of ministers for 7 months in 2015), Delay in the introduction of an integrated fiscal and monetary policy package, Lack of clarity over economic policy, Wrong Policy Choices, Over-dependency on imported good, dollar scarcity on account of crude oil prices etc

However, the consequence of this recession was hit most in 2016 when almost all sectors experienced a decline in productivity. The Country recorded a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the first and second quarter of 2016 at (-0.36%) and (-1.5%) while the inflation rate increases from 9.3% to 17.6% from August, 2015 till 2016 as shown in the figure below.

The effects of which leads to increase in unemployment, loss of jobs, inflation of goods and services, high interest rates, drastic fall in Government revenue, decline in the stock market, relocation of major investors, high cost of living, Increase in Poverty rate, food insecurity etc.

3.3 Food Insecurity: An Implication of Economic Recession

In Nigeria, food is important because it accounts for a substantial portion of the typical Nigerian household budget. The Nigerian Government in the past had thrived to ensure there is sufficiency of food in a fast growing populace by proclaiming different agricultural policies. In 1976, General Olusegun Obasanjo government started what was known as Operation Feed the Nation, (OFN) which was intended to be some kind of agricultural revolution in which everyone was asked to be involved to plant something, anything, anywhere; General Shehu Shagari took over as President in 1979 and called his own initiative Green Revolution; then General Ibrahim Babangida’s Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI) in 1985 (Ojo and Adebayo 2012).

However, when the era of civilization came into existence, several other policies were pronounced to boost food production, some of which are: Special Programmes for Food Security (SPFS), Root and Tuber Expansion Programme, Fadama Development Project, Community-based agricultural and rural development schemes. With all these Programs to combat hunger and ensure food security over time, the question that needed to be asked was if Nigeria is now food secured. According to Idachaba (2004), a country is food-secured when majority of its population have access to food of adequate quantity and quality consistent with decent existence at all times. The answer definitely is “No”. Nigerians still cannot afford sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy life.

With the existing food insecurity in the country joined with the aftermath of recession being experienced at this period, it is glaring that Nigerians lack the physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs. According to Ojo and Adebayo (2012), any system where food demand is not sufficiently marched by supply is no doubt one with looming food crisis. There is no doubt therefore, that there is a food crisis in the country as even the available agricultural products sold in the market are highly inflated. The figure below showed the prices of major commodities in the Nigerian Market

The contribution of the agricultural sector in improving the Nigerian GDP was however encouraging to the economy but could not meet the immediate diet need and food security of the people. Although there was a ban on the importation of certain food commodities by the Government in order to encourage the local farmers, but the Government realized that the locally produced food cannot sustain the people and have to lift the ban on some of food items. The country, however, at this time experienced massive importation of food commodities especially cereals (Rice) through both its land and sea borders. With the inflow of food items into the country, Genetically Modified Foods were reported by several national newspapers to have gained entrance into the Nigerian Market.

4.0 Genetically Modified Foods

According to the World Health Organization (2015), Genetically Modified Food are foods gotten from organisms whose genetic material (DNA) has been altered and/or modified in a way that does not occur naturally, such as the introduction of a gene from a different organism. The science from which it is made possible is known as Biotechnology, Genetic Engineering or Recombinant DNA Technology.

Genetically Modified Food dates back to when people started domesticating crops and animals, selecting better plants for cultivation and better animals for breeding, initially unknowingly and later intentionally (Wieczorek, 2013). Over thousands of years, farmers have engaged in selective breeding and cross-fertilization to modify plants and animals and had also developed plants with desirable traits, such as increased resistance to disease, larger fruit, and greater nutritional content (Wieczorek, 2013).

In modern days, biotechnology utilizes biological systems, living organisms, or derivatives thereof, to make or modify products or processes for specific use, especially in medicine and agriculture. The major aim of agricultural biotechnology is to improve crop characteristics such as yield, disease/pest resistance or herbicide tolerance to a degree not often possible with traditional methods. In essence, the big picture of biotechnology is to provide food security to the people.

4.1 Food Insecurity and the Emergency of Genetically Modified Foods

Food security is having sufficient physical, social and economic access to safe, nutritious and culturally acceptable food (Witcombe and Sanchez, 2004). Nigeria had been combating with food insecurity over the years, even before it plunged into recession. The Government had also in time past formulated several policies and embarked on different agenda just to ensure the country is food secured but was not productive as expected. It is however, glaring that the Government and Policy makers are looking for other ways through which hunger can be eradicated with the current population of Nigeria which is put at over 180 million people and the need to enhance agricultural practice, boost the economy and ensure food security in the country.

Many stakeholders in the agricultural sector began to divert the attention of the Government to Biotechnology. The National Biotechnology Development Agency (NABDA) and the Forum for Agricultural Biotechnology (OFAB) had made several attempts to have the country sign and ratify an internationally binding Biosafety Protocol Known as Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety which addresses the safe transfer, handling and use of Living Modified Organisms (LMOs) that may have adverse effects on conservation and sustainable utilization of biodiversity, taking into account risk to human health. They see the passage of the bill by the Nigerian Parliament as a path that will launch the country into the production and commercialization of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) with the capacity to increase crop production, ensure food security, and improve rural livelihoods. It was expected that the entrance of GMOs will solve the current problem by increasing crop productivity, lower the cost of production, guarantee food security, and improve both the health and livelihoods of resource-poor farmers who make up more than 70% of the rural population. But, the absence of a biosafety law was seen as the problem.

However, in a public debate, many Nigerians stood against the passage of the law citing different disadvantages such as the introduction of allergens and toxins to food, unexpected contamination of genetically modified food and non-genetically modified food, antibiotics resistance, spread of pest resistance or herbicide tolerance to wild plants, alteration of the nutritional content of crops, low nutritional value, environmental and economic problems, endangering of the environment in some other way, inadvertent toxicity to wildlife, increasing control of agriculture by biotechnology corporations and the development of ailments such as birth defects, autism, Parkinson, Alzheimer, breast cancer, and more. Compounds found in GMO can trigger early puberty, cause thyroid problem and infertility (NIALS, 2015). The passage of the bill was therefore stalled for some period. But on the long run, the former President Goodluck Jonathan signed the National Biosafety Agency Bill into law in 2015, authorizing biotechnology research and deployment in Nigeria.

With the signing of the bill, planting of genetically modified (GM) crops, breeding of GM animals and consumption of GM foods were legal in Nigeria. In May, 2016, the Federal Government through the National Biosafety Management Agency (NBMA) issued a permit to Monsanto Agriculture Nigeria Limited for Confined Field Trial (CFT) of maize (NK603 and MON 89034 x NK603) genetically modified for insect resistance and herbicide tolerance; and also for Commercial release/ Placing on Market of Cotton (MON15985) genetically modified for lepidopteran insect/pest resistance (NBMA, 2016).

An important challenge imposed on the country is how one improves food security; however, the challenge of improving food security is more than just increasing food production. Nevertheless, in order to completely address the aim of making the country food secure. We need to look into the two important statements as outlined in the definition of food security below.

“Food security exists when all people at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy life”.
The problem of food security in Nigeria is not a problem of food production but one of access to it. Even when the GMFs are produced in large quantities, will the masses have access to it? Can a common Nigerian afford it? Will the production be consistent? It is however possible that the introduction and signing into law of the bill that allows planting of genetically modified crops might not be the solution to the present food insecurity; the real causes of hunger in Nigeria are poverty, inequality, unemployment and lack of access to food and land.

Another challenge worth taking note is the sufficiency and safety of the GMF. Are GMFs safe and healthy for consumption? The views raised by many Nigerians who opposed this bill cannot be totally ignored. Many researchers had also raised similar risks and threats posed by GMFs (Subulade et al. 2007; Ibiam and Okoi, 2012). Consumers of these foods would have more confidence if the production of GM Crops were regulated; labeled and certified safe for consumption, but it is alarming and ridiculous that GMFs had found its way into the country through importations from neighboring countries without the prior knowledge of the regulatory agencies in charge.

In October, 2016, the Federal Government, through its National Biosafety Management Agency, discovered through a survey carried out on some major superstores in the country revealed that the outfits were ignorantly selling foods that were genetically modified to their customers without approval from the agency. Likewise in December, 2016, the Nigerian Custom Service reported it intercepted 102 bags of a Rice brand and claims that the rice seized in Lagos, a major city in Nigeria was a ‘plastic rice’. However, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) later reported that the “suspected fake rice” also said to be plastic rice is contaminated but not plastic rice.

According to the agency, result of the laboratory analysis of the product in a 25kg pack size, without NAFDAC number, no batch number, no date markings and no details of the manufacturer showed the following:

1. Floating - Negative
2. Sedimentation- Positive
3. Cooking- Normal
4. Odour- Normal
5. Colour. - Off-white grains
6. Moisture - 13% (within specification)
7. Pre-ashing - Normal
8. Ash - 0.6% (within specification)
9. Lead and Cadmium- Not detected
10. Aerobic mesophillic count- 2.8x105 cfu (above maximum limits)
11. Mould - 5.1x103 cfu - (within specification)
12. Coli form - 7.5x103 cfu (above maximum limits)
13. E-coli- <3cfu (within specification)
14. Packaging- Does not conform to NAFDAC pre-packaging Food labeling regulations 2005 (NCS, 2016)

Based on the above Laboratory result, the product was reported to be GM rice contaminated with microorganisms above permissible limit, hence, confirmed to be unsatisfactory and therefore unwholesome for human consumption. It is certain that GMFs had found its way into the market and people had ignorantly bought and consumed them.

5.0 Conclusion

Economic recession had plunged the country into severe food crisis and insecurity. The bill encouraging the deployment of GMFs to boost food production seems to be a welcome development. But inorder to ensure the safety of the consumers, certain measures should be put in place by concerned organizations to guarantee the safety of these foods.

References

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