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RE: A Discussion About Climate Change – Part 1: Milankovitch Cycles
@gra I am curious about which stage we are in with the natural cycle. I've heard that we are in the cooling regime of the natural cycle. Therefore, disregarding other factors, we would expect a cooling of the climate. Do you know anything about whether this true?
As @lennstar says, there are many factors and some of them are having contrasting effects. It might be better to think of it less as 'cooling' and 'heating' and more as an increase or decrease in how severe the seasons are. The eccentricity of the orbit is currently decreasing and a more circular orbit will make the seasons more mild / less extreme everywhere. Similarly, the axial tilt is decreasing which will also make the seasons less severe. The axial precession is at one extreme, which means in the future the seasonal changes will be getting more severe in the Northern Hemisphere and less severe in the Southern Hemisphere. The weight that each of these factors carry in influencing global climate relative to anthropogenic sources is still a hotly contested issue, but I'll try to address this more in depth in one of the later parts of this article.
@gra that makes it more clear, thanks for the information. I will be keeping an eye on your future work!
That is true, most (of course not all, since there are many) natural factors are in a cool or cooling phase.