RE: Why Harry Dent is both right and wrong on deflation
Thanks for your reply - I've been pretty busy working on my business so not had much time to blog recently.
One point to note is that Gold does tend to bounce back after the crash. During the crash everything is sold to raise cash to cover debts, however, once the initial crash is done and loose monetary policies are implemented to counter the crash gold and silver tend to react to currency weakness and fear of currency collapse.
This time around it is likely that a global currency collapse will occur to counter massive derivative losses. To overcome this I believe a return to sound money will be the only solution.
The charts are telling us that gold is about to fall. I believe this is the beginning of the crash that will accelerate in the coming months. You might therefore be correct in your analysis and gold will fall, however, Dents view that Gold is a commodity is fundamentally incorrect. Gold is money. Currency is debt. Silver will become money as the people attempt to hoard it while gold rises to unaffordable levels.
When? The authorities will try to put this off for as long as possible through various visible and hidden means, and they are powerful, so it's likely that the crash may not occur fully for many months, but it appears that the wheels are in motion.
If Dent were to view gold as money and see that currency is just debt, he would no doubt agree with this analysis. Thus according to his analysis there will indeed be massive deflation against money (real money).
I see gold and silver as money too, but the only thing is that all of the traders out there treat it as a commodity. In a very long term perspective, you're better off buying the investments you believe in, but to someone like me who wants to time things, cash looks attractive at the moment.
Cash might provide you with the opportunity to buy at lower prices. At some point there will be a critical mass of people who start to see currency as worthless debt and realise the value of gold. This will occur as a result of a system breakdown, more than likely triggered by a derivatives collapse. Everything (including currency) is built on debt. The only safe haven during a debt collapse will be gold (and other valuable, storable assets). Crypto currencies will also benefit to some extent, but as people rush out of risk assets they will prefer gold to crypto's.
I've heard of the risk of derivatives. What will bring them to collapse?
Rising interest rates more than likely.