RE: Technically the dollar is telegraphing a collapse
Very astute. You should also look at the dollar Vs JPY, this more or less dictates the carry trade.
Charts / technical analysis is a little 'iffy' (IMO) as they paint the tape. But some numbers can't be painted such as the GSR. This was about 78, so if you consider that historically this ratio has been about 16 and the amount of gold to silver pulled out of the ground is about 10 to 1, it makes sense that the price of silver should move high than gold. Also silver has industrial applications where gold really doesn't.
I believe that the price of the metals have been kept low using 'paper' contracts on the COMEX and I have been waiting for that to explode since 2008 or so. I am now aware of EFP and I think they are using it to lessen the liability on the COMEX.
Over all, I am in agreement with your position, nice post.
I used to be a bit sceptical on chart-ism and technical analysis. Many years ago a my friends father was trying to tell me about it as he was a thought leader at the time and had a number of books published on it. It all sounded a bit like reading tea leaves to me, but if you consider that all of the fundamental information is priced into the charts (including manipulation) you can see patterns are quite predictive. Chart painting does go on, but that could only ever be on a day trading basis, no single institution could ever paint long term charts without them rebounding to where they are supposed to be. It would take trillions to do it effectively.
I most of us invested in PM's who are still here have been waiting many years. I've also been in since 2006 so it's been a long decade of failed expectations.