[Steem talk] Strategize for flash flood effect - Part I

Have you ever come to think of why the post reward always change despite the number of upvote did not change? Sometimes it's like overnight the entire payout shrunk a lot, you can literally feel the pain. Particularly for those posts that hovering at round figures. Like 5.013, the next day you see it become 4.998 and following day become 4.837 and so on. This is what I called, the flash flood effect. Due to market fluctuation, and Steem price feed is 3.5 days average, therefore any sudden move in the market will bring a slow change to the current post payout.

As we all know, Steem feed price is based on 3.5 days average. And therefore, the post payout is subjected to fluctuation of feed price. Oftenly I heard friends talk about how much they lose during a recent drop of feed price, especially when they paid for vote buying service. So, here's what I have to share with you all.

First go to SteemD and take a look at the current feed price. To understand how this feed price will take effect, you may check on the current actual market value from exchange or price feeder.

Head to Coingecko and checkout current Steem price.

Scroll to the middle part of the webpage and find Steem chart. Select on the 7Day pattern and wait for the chart to update. Once updated, copy the chart and paste it to our drawing board. Use all the low points within the chart and draw a line connecting as many low point as possible. Refer the above screenshot as I have drawn it.

With this, we can easily predict what is the current trend. Can we buy votes or not? This time, we're going to talk about NOT buying vote for profit. So, no you don't buy vote because even if it's current uptrend, it's going to turn down anytime, we won't know that. BUT, stay tune until next sharing, we're going to talk about buying it all the way down!!! We will use a lot of bad time examples, and how can we take opportunity during bad time.

This is no magic. Trading method in commodities/futures and stocks is there for donkey years. History will repeat by itself. The above is an exact good example how the market fail. When all the dots being connected, and the market price already poked below. Check where your feed price is. If it's above current market price, chances are the feed will start to average down over the next 3 days. Let's see what happen to your pay out if you buy vote at 0.52 as per screenshot above.

See that? I was still expecting it will bounce back to 0.55 region before it take a dip, but it didn't. It goes straight to the bottom. From what happen to the above chart, within 2 weeks, a $5.500 payout post will be shtunk to $4.200. Taking away the 25% curation reward, you'll see how painful it is! Considering your votes are all organic, there's not much of lost love. But if you're waiting for your investment to mature in 7 days after buy vote? Seriously, you'll be crying after see this. Like 20% of your original post payout gone. Don't forget, every vote your bought are subjected to 25% curation cut. If you buy 10SBD for a 14$ vote, don't get carried away. The actual return for that purchase is only about 11$ worth or less. If you bought a vote on a platform that takes beneficiaries, good chance is you even lose that 10% profit. If you meet the above situation, you're going to lose more.

Let's talk about how to connect the dot from the above next time around. If you like my post, feel free to upvote, resteem, share, reblog, follow and subscribe. Leave me a comment, discussion are welcome, I will try to answer all.

Proud curator and editor of #cn-malaysia:

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Posted from my blog with SteemPress : http://davidke20.vornix.blog/2019/04/21/steem-talk-strategize-for-flash-flood-effect/

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