Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [4]

in steemmonsters •  3 months ago 

Hey guys! Welcome to another update on the expected value of rewards cards!

How it Was Calculated

Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX. The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate.
image.png

Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank!
Below is an example of the data (not updated):
image.png

Today's Data

The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card.
image.png

Today's Average Value: $0.0699

Expected Value of Each Rank

  • Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much.
    image.png

Price History

  • 04/02: $0.0941
  • 07/02: $0.1051
  • 11/02: $0.0939
  • 17/02: $0.0699
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Nice calc!
Thanks a lot.

I wonder how long it takes to complete daily so we can compare it to the minimum wage in different parts of the world.

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That's a very interesting suggestion! I might give something like this a shot :)

Yes, card prices are dropping a lot lately. It’s funny as Steem is up.
But I think Drug Wars has stolen a lot of players.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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why?
noone needs them anymore?

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Less demand as people are busy on Drug Wars. Hopefully temporary as the Steem Monsters team should have the money to market outside Steem and it’s a great game.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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That's true, even I've spent a few dollars on drug wars. However, the rewards structure for Drug Wars isn't sustainable in my opinion. I plan on writing a detailed post on it soon!

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Yes, Steem provides a great pool of early adopters for new games etc but ultimately success needs to come from bringing players from outside Steem.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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