Expected Value of Steem Monsters Daily Quests [3]

in #steemmonsters6 years ago

Hey guys! Welcome to another update on the expected value of rewards cards!

How it Was Calculated

Before calculating, I had to use the assumption that you can sell your card at the lowest price per BCX. The drop rates used were from @yabapmatt so we know that it's accurate.
image.png

Firstly, I calculated the average cost of cards per rarity, then I multiplied it by the chance of it being opened. I added these up for all the rarities and then we have the expected value of each reward card earned. After that, I just had to simply multiply that value by how many cards you earn from each rank!

Today's Data

The data is sorted in rarity, from lowest to highest. Then the average value of each rarity is calculated, which is multiplied by its chance to drop. This is all then added together to form the expected value of each reward card.
image.png

Today's Average Value: $0.0939

Expected Value of Each Rank

  • Note: this is assuming you stay at the same rank for the whole season, each season has 14 days and you complete all daily quests in the 14 days. Therefore, this estimate is quite high and realistically you aren't going to earn this much.
    image.png

Price History

  • 04/02: $0.0941
  • 07/02: $0.1051
  • 11/02: $0.0939
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Interesting and logical way to do it for sure! Shows how we can add value to our accounts by just playing which is why it is so great! Even new players have a chance to earn by playing. If we take these potential earnings and compare with the theoretical cost of investment with Started packs at $10. The return is over 300%!

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Very cool, I was imagining each card had a rough value of 0.10 USD, but my estimation was just based on visual review of the prices at Peakmonsters.com, its cool to see some data to kind of back that up.

I am definitely playing all my quests and trying my best to earn with this game. As far as I am concerned its a revenue stream. One of two on the steem blockchain.

So far I have just been buying cards, but its part of a strategy to become competitve so I can "mine" free cards, and therefore diversify my income on steem.

thanks for your work on this!

No worries! I'll be posting more every few days :)

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