EV - EXPECTED VALUE of BETA boosters! 🐉

in steemmonsters •  6 months ago  (edited)

Hey guys, as speaking in the general chat there was a lot of discussion about the Expected Value of Beta boosters in Steem Monsters. Those are priced at 2 USD, but which is the value we can expect opening one? I run some calculations.
I'm also using the @yabapmatt statement of:

Each card has a 20% chance of being rare, 4% chance of being epic, and 0.8% chance of being legendary, as well as a 2% chance of being gold.

Number of Legendaries: 10
Total minimum price of Legendaries: 34.36 USD (as of December, 4th)
Average price per Legendary: 34.36/10 = 3.4 USD
Probability of opening a Legendary per pack: 5x0.8% = 4%
Added value on Legendaries, per booster: 4%x3.4 USD = 0.14 USD

Total minimum price of Gold Legendaries: 2894 USD(as of December, 4th)
Average price per Gold Legendary: 2894/10 = 290 USD
Considering 150 USD as average, as actual sell price to not bias the statistic, given market sales in the Discord group and data from everyday experience (and it might still be optimistic given GL are sold for 100/150 USD lately).
(thanks to @tcpolymath)
Probability of opening a Gold Legendary per pack: 5x0.8%x2% = 0.08%
Added Value on Gold Legendaries, per booster: 0.08%x150 =0.12 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING A LEGENDARY, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.26 USD

Number of Epics: 17
Total minimum price of Epics: 13.39 USD (as of December, 4th)
Average price per Epic: 13.39/17= 0.8 USD
Probability of opening a Epic per pack: 5x4% = 20%
Added value on Epic, per booster= 20%x0.8USD = 0.16 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Epic: 467.7 USD (as of December, 4th)
Average price per Gold Epic: 467.7/17 = 27.5 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Epic per pack: 5x4%x2% =0.4%
Added Value on Gold Epic, per booster: 0.4% x 27.5 = 0.11 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.27 USD

Number of Rares: 23
Total minimum price of Rares: 3.33 USD (as of December, 4th)
Average price per Rare: 3.33/23 = 0.14 USD
Probability of opening a Rare per pack: 5x20% = 100%
Added value on Rare, per booster= 100%x0.14USD = 0.14 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Rare: 141.01 USD(as of December, 4th)
Average price per Gold Rare: 141.01/23 = 6.13 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Rare per pack: 5x20%x2% = 2%
Added Value on Gold Rare, per booster: 2% x 6.13 = 0.12 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN EPIC, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.26 USD

Number of Commons: 24
Total minimum price of Commons: 1.46 USD (as of December, 4th)
Average price per Common: 1.46/24 = 0.06 USD
Probability of opening a Common per pack: 4 per pack minimum
Added value on Common, per booster= 4x0.06 USD = 0.24 USD
Total minimum price of Gold Common: 33.4 USD(as of December, 4th)
Average price per Gold Common: 33.4/24 = 1.39 USD
Probability of opening a Gold Common per pack: 4 x 2% = 8%
Added Value on Gold Common, per booster: 8% x 1.39 = 0.11 USD

TOTAL VALUE OF OPENING AN COMMON, GOLD OR NOT, PER BOOSTER = 0.35 USD

BOOSTER VALUE, EXPECTED VALUE = 1.14 USD

What do you guys think? Do you open @steemmonsters pack?


If you liked some lunchtime maths, please upvote to support my 🐬 aim by the end of the year.


Steem Monster


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Looks like SteemMonsters has not been immune to the recent downturn in the market. Still holding up better than most crypto assets though.

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Yeah, that's right @nealmcspadden

I think the price you calculated is fair, since last 20packs i haven't got any good card like gold or epic. All the packs are almost worth 0.4-0.5$ max after opening otherwise its less.
Regards,
Dayyan Khan

Good post. My pack luck has been terrible. Spend $100 last night on 50 packs. 0 Legendary cards :(

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Bad to hear that @bittrio!

No matter the average price of the pack you open, it's fun to open packages, every time you open one is like throwing money in the air waiting for more money to fall than the one you threw. its a game after all, like any slot machine.

Hi, @bafi!

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