A Chat With A Top Steem Trader…….. Steemians Speak - Has Steemit Met Your Expectation?....... This Week On Steemit…….. SteemMag – Steemit’s Weekend Digest #25 p.2
A Chat With @ozmaster
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SteemMag: The price of Steem dipped a couple of days ago? What is the most likely reason?
@ozmaster
Big early miners or investors who don't believe in the project itself, don't forget that the big powerdowns came out "recently". Might be one reason for the dumps. That would also trigger a reaction at the big traders, even the ones wanting STEEM to rise in the longer term will like the opportunity to buy at the cheapest possible prices.
SM: You trade a couple of cryptos apart from Steem? Why would you prefer trading Steem to other coins?
@ozmaster
Yes, I do trade a couple of other cryptos, mostly coins that have a long history like VTC, BLK, VIA, NSR,...
Pretty much STEEM is an actively traded coin with reasonable volume on a daily basis, what not many other coins have. Another point is that STEEM, compared to its historical prices, is at very low levels, which if you have a long term plan in mind is very appealing.
SM: Steemit is 10 months and the Steem mining has been on for almost 12 months. What is your overview on trading Steem i.e trade history of the coin and the journey so far?
@ozmaster:
To me the trade history is telling that STEEM is in a heavy accumulation mode. The price keeps going down and even made a new all-time low, yet the platform is working and users are relatively active.
People who want STEEM to go into uptrend in a longer run will have the interest to try and force the people who want to exit to exit at lowest possible prices.
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A Chat With @acidyo
How I joined
I was a big fan of reddit, the way imaginary karma points were incentive enough for users to post good and mostly original content and how it differed in quality from all other sites at the time (5-6 years ago).
Of course there were re-posts, plagiarists and all sorts of uploaders, but the real gems were the comments in my opinion, that's why I stuck around so long and enjoyed being a part of that community. Comments were the gem that could make the oldest re-post worthwhile since a heap of users were contributing and competing against others (for worthless karma) to come up with the most original/witty/funny/interesting/quality commentating. To say the least, reddit had an edge over all other sites in quality.
There was also where I stumbled upon Steemit in a cryptocurrency subreddit. I quickly created an account and the more I read about it the more that feeling when I first stumbled upon reddit I received. The feeling of innovation, of something new and fresh, a game-changer with potential to overcome the one site I loved for all these years.
Earlier expectations
My early expectations where that it would shoot up quicker in popularity than anything before, but I've come to understand over the months that competition is fierce in this economy and especially in the attention economy with the bigger platforms themselves (censorship of links taking users to different platforms than the one they are one, for instance). Compared to other companies and how they have accelerated in the past to mass adoption, we are still on a very solid and good way towards that in my opinion.
Surprising Moments
There haven't been too many surprised or crazy moments, of course during July and the post payouts with the steem price were kind of crazy! Seeing users from anywhere in the world posting to this new social website, for some of them one post on this random website being something that turned their life around. It was a very unique experience. I have been a believer of cryptocurrencies for a long time, on and off because of real life getting in the way, but to see blockchain technology being used for the first time for the people, not just the investors, speculators, traders. But for you and me, content creators, artists, anyone and everyone really.\
My suggestion is to keep improving, experimenting while it’s in beta, while continuing to listen to the wisdom of the crowd/community. I really hope we find a good and fair solution to rewarding commentators as that is something I believe will be a very strong aspect of the site and its censorship-resistant advantage. With real value being rewarded to good contributions, fee's being almost non-existent and the underlying technology supporting it strongly, I imagine the quality of the platform will continue to improve while more and more front-ends will be begin to accelerate user growth.
A lot of interesting events happened this week. And in case you missed them, we’ve got your back. Here are some of the most important events that happened on Steemit this week.
~ Steem drops from last week's position to 13th on the coinmarketcap.com’s crypto market capitalization list.
~ @steemitblog releases details on Proposed Comment Reward Curve
~ @uniphyscho releases updates to SteemWriter
~ For a comprehensive list of dedicated Steem blockchain apps. Check out SteemTools.com
~ Meanwhile, SBD rates ranged from 1 SD = $ 0.97 - 1.01 this week
~$0.117 and $0.148 were the lowest and highest value traded this week for a unit of Steem respectively.
Steemians Talk contd...
@neoxian
What did I expect? I'm not sure, but usually investing in a cryptocoin is sort of "fire and forget". You buy a bunch of coin and then sit on it for a while, hoping to get rich. With Steemit, you don't get off that easy. It forces you to participate to maintain the value of your investment because otherwise, small bits of your value will be given away to those that do.
Steemit has much value though. It's turned a normal quiet, lurker like me into an active participator. I've been pretty active lately and it's a lot of fun. A huge plus to Steemit and the Steem blockchain is censorship resistant, and I've been trying to demonstrate that with my latest posts. What's the future of Steemit? It's unclear, but I'm here for the ride.
When I was told about Steemit by @Gringalicious, I was new to cryptocurrencies. (I mean, I knew of them, but I didn't own any, nor had I heard words like "blockchain" or "hardfork".) She had recently just joined and had received a rather impressive payout for one of her posts and messaged me about the platform, knowing that I enjoyed making art - c'mon, everyone knows that there is no easy or affordable way to be paid for being an artist, unless you have a signed paper from some institution saying that you are an artist.
haha I signed up with very few expectations, really, but after looking into it more and more and realizing how huge it could become, I was stunned. (I missed the $4.00 ride by a couple of months, but I've come to terms with that. haha) When I got my first $100+ payout, my excitement and expectations skyrocketed.
My newly formed expectations were that this platform was going to grow exponentially, and fast - to this day, I still feel the same. I believe that there is a serious amount of potential here. We've been all over the board with prices lately, and within the past few days the price has dropped below $0.12USD - That hurts a bit, but for the most part, I am unaffected by it, as I see STEEM as an investment, and I view Steemit as the tool for that investment. Steemit is definitely living up to my current expectations, and I believe that it will only grow from here. I'm actually really looking forward to seeing which changes are agreed upon for Hardfork 0.17.0!
I'd like to be on the next issue...do I pm you on steemit.chat ?
Sure. It would be nice to have you drop by. Im infovore on steemit.chat too.
0.0 I'm famous! Hehe
I personally would love to hear more from @ozmaster he seems to really know his stuff.
Trading is in heavy divestment mode, not accumulation. You can't say something is continually in accumulation mode at every step of a downtrend.
Also those coins he trades... I've never heard of them have you?
Steem isn't tradeable in volume, if you buy it to trade a bit with size you can't get out without pushing the price down a few percentage points. It's illiquid, not tradeable.
He's right about forcing people to pay lower prices though. I'd be careful about assigning authority to 'traders' without actual proof.
Yes, I've been involved in trading equity markets for more than a decade and have not seen an accumulation phase that consistently pushed price lower. Generally, you look for accumulation because then you have a underlying buyer in the given asset. i.e., when a hedge fund is accumulating a large position of a stock.
Silly words to convince inexperienced traders and normal people.
I'm demoralised by the authority that's been given to ozchartart. Even this interview, complete nonsense.
Smiles. Like I said in the other reply, it would be absurd to believe we can completely agree with others.
SteemMag, like Steemit, is where everyone opinion matters. And for his long history of trading, his opinion certainly matters too..
I drop by #trading channel on steemit.chat regularly to learn new stuff.
It will be awesome if I can find traders being active on that. It would make reaching out to them so easy just like in #price.
How are you doing btw?
Smiles. I'm doing fine thanks.
Most of the trading talk that I know of is done privately as the public rooms get filled with links.
Nice to learn a couple of new stuff. Do you trade in cryptos too?
I've bought some steem on few occasions as a long term investment. If I'm actively trading it's stocks or currencies. Haven't traded cryptos yet, kind of like trading penny stocks IMHO.
Someone is buying. These are the market actors that are in accumulation. To say otherwise is being disingenuous.
And I would agree the STEEM chart pattern shows signs of heavy accumulation. IMHO, it's a standard cryptotoken pattern that occurs due to two facts : illiquid markets (which you've observed, with respect to STEEM -- but this is common for most cryptotokens) and no good way of constructing an options market (although, the latter could be perceived as a consequence of the former).
I've never heard of PeerCoin, VertCoin, or BlackCoin. What's the innovation behind these coins?
/end sarcasm
Statements like the quote above that attempt to dissuade those who are new to trading cryptotokens to not look at @ozchartart's analysis because someone has "never heard of them" come from someone who has failed to do adequate research or is purposefully trolling. The coins that I listed were the first to launch original and technologically innovative features. If you are referring to other coins, be more specific. If you have any that with which you have particular problem, say so. Generic statements with no proof are just that.
I'd be careful of listening to anyone who uses synonymous terms to discredit other people.
Note that it's the words you use to describe the observation of the same phenomena. You say divestment (people selling) and he says accumulation (people buying). A market requires both ...
Someone buying is not enough to determine if a market is in accumulation mode.
Someone is always buying and selling, its the balance that matters; whether those buyers are lifting the offer or being hit on the bid and the volume.
The market is clearly in distribution mode not accumulation mode. As the negative Accumulation/Distribution indicator shows below. Along with the fact that the indicator is trending down with price. If it were trending up with price remaining the same then the market could be said to be in accumulation mode. It isn't.
https://postimg.org/image/icy74zhm7/
My comment about the coins was uncalled for, I apologize for that.
Your definition of accumulation and distribution are different from mine.
I would also suggest that you zoom out to the full chart instead of looking at such small time frame as you miss the bigger picture.
I consider accumulation when a token has been in a price range for a long period of time. This range is completely determined by what time frame and how big of a timeline you use when you zoom out on the chart.
Even on that chart you posted, you'll see that on every mini-rise (circa early november, mid december and mid january), there was volume associated to it.
These are small volume indicators that show higher amounts of BUYING than normal (since they really are all associated to price moves up. Don't let the December red volume marker fool you in the image you posted, it's just the time in which that candle was painted.)
These larger than normal volume days are an indication of activity and help to confirm the accumulation mode the token is in.
Here's a chart that clearly shows the pattern that I mean.
The narrow band is highlighted with some blue and purpleish lines to indicate the range. This where the price has been for the last several months.
Notice the volume indicators that mark as confirmations of this chart pattern.
Also, observe that the majority of the price has been closer to the support level of that narrow band.
Indeed, you can see the same type of phenomena in many other charts, i.e. narrow trading band for a period of several months (or even longer) with various candles strewn about that have larger than normal volume which are almost always paired with a rise in the price.
To me, this is a chart that has all the hallmarks of a cryptotoken that is in 'accumulation' mode.
I agree with looking at the entire picture and seeing the context of an extended downtrend followed by a ranging period where volume spikes. This is a pattern for accumulation as you've stated. We however have to take into account accumulation indicators, which are a derived from price and volume.
However just because the pattern makes sense doesn't mean it's 'technically' accumulation we're seeing. Like I said above, overall volumes and changes in volume have to be taken into account.
My value for the Accumulation/Distribution indicator may be over exaggerated due to the rise in the price of BTC - however I think it's still loosely accurate.
We might be close to some kind of accumulation, but I don't think the market is quite ready. It's one thing to notice the pattern and a few spikes in volume, it's another to actually call that accumulation. Also we need to take into account the implications of HF16 on the ranging period.
I think this article provides a little more context above and beyond the pattern.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/institutional-effect.asp
Due to nested comment limitations, putting this here.
I don't use other people's created tools for indicators.
Yes, we're still on lower volume, but the supply availability on the order books is not available for accumulating directly from taking away from the ask side.
This is due to the illiquid nature of all cryptotokens.
As such, low volume in a 'narrow' range is an indicator because you can't apply all of the other TA from stocks to trading cryptotokens.
In addition, I don't bother with looking at how btc rises in comparison to fiat. It's a simpler analysis to only consider btc to alt ratio. As rising or sinking btc is correlated to alt price in fiat (or near enough, i.e. btc rises 15%, an alt may go down immediately 25%, but tends to recover to maybe 10% lower than it was -- assuming btc was stable during the adjustment).
Plus, nearly all gateways are btc to alt anyway, so why would anyone consider any pricing from alt to fiat?
You don't want to call accumulation, that's fine. However, I am, as I don't believe your indicator, for reasons outlined above.
Hey man. Glad to finally have you stop by . It's certainly been a while.
You will notice he mentioned he deals with a wide range of cryptos and he mentioned a few. Nearly everyone has investment in the top 5 cryptos. Even a noob.
Im not a trader and I have no special knowledge about trading. The essence of SteemMag is to have a chat with people whose opinions are worth it. And quite a number of people have agreed to the worthiness of his tips.
We cant completely agree with others so Im glad you agreed with him on a point.
I've interviewed several other traders (including you if I can remember correctly) in the past and I plan to run a special SteemMag feature soon focusing solely on Steem Trading.
Would be nice to have a chat with you soon.
Thanks for dropping by man. You sure do have a lotta interesting views too.
I enjoyed it! :)
Interesting as always ! Thanks for your hard work
Nice to have you drop by @mammasitta. Its been quite a while eh?
Is there anything you would want to change about this weekend's issue?
Your work is always great ! Nothing to add :)
Fantastic interviews as always:)
Thanks man. Really appreciate having you drop by week in week out. What was your favorite part of today's edition.?
I think the interview with Smooth:)
Great article @infovore, always love your stuff.
The latter of this statement is not true, many other coins have volume in trading, especially ones that have been around longer than steem (which many coins have been around longer.)
I think the word you are looking at that is not adequately defined is 'reasonable.' Some may say that 1 btc daily trading volume is reasonable. Others not.
I enjoyed the read. Thanks for the interviews. It's nice to see what people are thinking. Keep up the magazines!
great work.
didn't noticed your blog before. very interesting.
thanks.
Great interviews, man. :-)
We'll post Russian translations soon!