Bitcoin Today, Bitcoin Tomorrow
Bitcoin is down 15% from the psychologically important, but in reality utterly meaningless, level of $10,000. Round numbers are just easy to remember. They have nothing to do with trading support and resistance levels. Not that I'm a big fan of those, either. Technical analysis is pretty much useless in a market where 95% of the trading volume is faked, don't you think?
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As we move into the final few days of Q3, we have a potential impeachment in the United States. I don't think anything will happen in that regard, but it is a news event that will create volatility thanks to algos chewing on the key words being tweeted out these days. In China, the HUGE YUGE HUGE (it can't be overstated how big this is, seriously!) 70th birthday celebration will take place in Beijing on October 1. There is also an associated 10-days-off Golden Week holiday where, as is usual with people almost everywhere in the world before extended vacations, most people have already checked out with 2 days still left to go. So as those of us in Shanghai kind of slowly pantomime through the motions until happy hour on Friday, it might be interesting to take stock of how far we've already come in 2019.
On January 1, Bitcoin (BTC) - the undisputed Kang of Hiz Domayn - "opened" according to Coinmarketcap (I have no idea how these statistical providers define opening & closing of a market that runs 24/7) at $3747.
OOPS! I just checked. Now we're down 15.6% off $10K. The old Bitty is now at $8440.
But still, that's a 125% return year to date!
Not bad for Old Man Crypto himself. Bitcoin is outclassing the young alt uns this year.
And there's a reason for that.
With bitcoin, there are no seed investors to placate. There are no board members to curry favor with. There's no marketing team. There's no keynote speeches to attend or pore over after the fact. There are no regulators to deal with. And even if there were, there'd be no one at Bitcoin Corp to talk to.
With bitcoin, there's just you, someone you'd like to exchange value with, and some remote miner to put that transaction on the block for you. That's it.
The simplicity of that system is immensely valuable.
Everything else is just noise.
bitcoin stayed at 10K mark for so long that many people were too bullish all get rekt
I don't feel like it was that long. Like, literally it feels like it was last week when it was struggling to bust through $4K.
TA be damned until it bounces off $6k ;).
I'm sure there are a lot of people that are disappointed after BAKT kicked off that it had such a lackluster kick-off. Or maybe a whale finally decided to take some profits after buying in the $3k range.
I prefer just to cost average down and take the simple approach.
Good for you! I dollar cost averaged from 6k down and then back up. Now I've got my #HODL1BTC for the kid. Maybe start looking to do the same for me and the wifey if things continue to be sour.
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Dear @shanghaipreneur
You nailed it. I also realized that at the same time different people are coming to very different conclusions while presenting their own TA.
So what's the point? If analyzing same data are bringing us sometimes to absolutely opposite conslucions, then it's really hard to take TA seriously.
Psychology matters way more in my opinion,
I wonder if Mainland China will follow up with some heavy crackdown on Hong Kong because of that event.
It surely has a value for many, however at the same time (for all mentioned reasons) this market is considered not mature and easy to manipulate.
Good read. Upvote on the way, Catch :)
Yours, Piotr
Thanks @crypto.piotr. Always good to get some well-reasoned commentary from you. The only rational response to any of this stuff is just to DCA into BTC. I'm already at #HODL1BTC but maybe I oughta consider a new goal: #HODL1BTC per family member!