Should As Much STEEM As Possible Be Powered Up?

in #steemleo5 years ago (edited)

The message you receive often on Steem is that you should power up, use your influence and be an active member of the community. It is in fact a particularly good idea to power up and engage actively right now that there is relatively little competition over what you can earn from the inflation pool. Steem inflation is always ticking over according to its slowly decreasing pace regardless of how many users are putting out posts and getting rewards. If you buy STEEM, it's a good idea to power it up because it will help you earn more. There are fewer people around than during the peak of the last bull market and your chances of being recognized by the heavy hitters are better than they most likely will ever be.

All that said, should you always remain powered up? I think not. That's because STEEM is crazy volatile even for an altcoin. There are two basic reasons for that. First of all, the Steem Backed Dollar (SBD) is a STEEM backed stablecoin. The price to pay for the relative stability of SBD is the instability of STEEM. When SBD is worth less than one USD, SBDs can be converted into a number of STEEM worth exactly one USD. The conversion process takes 3.5 days and during the process the SBD converted is burned new STEEM is created. The conversion process guarantees the creation of sufficient STEEM to be worth one USD only so long as the market cap of SBD (the value of all SBD combined) stays under 10% of the market cap of all STEEM. The burning of SBD helps maintain its price while putting considerable downward pressure on the price of STEEM particularly when there is a significantly large number of SBD in circulation that was created during a previous altcoin bull run. Secondly, powered up STEEM is non-transferable and as good as non-existent for the purposes of trading. If there is much demand for STEEM, that will result in severe scarcity as those with their STEEM all powered up will be completely unable to sell.

For the above reasons, once the price of STEEM starts going up, it's a smart move to keep an increasing share of ones stake liquid. That's because price of STEEM has a tendency to spike to an extreme degree. But whatever goes up parabolically must come down. There's always a correction. That's why it's a good move to sell. If SBD has remained stable and not spiked, then it can become a convenient store of value as using it doesn't even require the money to leave the platform. Buying it if it has gone far north of one USD is dangerous and cannot be recommended for anyone. When the price of STEEM bottoms again, it's a good time to buy STEEM on the way down with the large supply of SBD you have left from the bull run.

The instability of STEEM is harmful to the ecosystem because an extremely high external value of STEEM results in an excess of SBD to be created as the liquid portion of content rewards. This will in turn result in STEEM getting hammered in the following bear market. That will result in any and all businesses dependent on constantly selling STEEM, including Steemit, Inc, to have difficulty covering their expenses during a subsequent bear market unless they are very careful about running their finances. The volatility of STEEM is a real problem. Fortunately, we can all be part of the solution. The more of us manage to keep our heads cool and unload during the spikes and the more of us power up and keep our noses to the grindstone during the bear markets the more stable the price action.

Another good idea I've heard some people talk about here is shortening the power down period from 13 weeks to four weeks, possibly at an extra cost depending on how fast one wants to power down. That would make a lot of sense because the alternative is keeping all funds liquid but that's results in a loss of the size of the annual inflation rate right out of the gate. I agree with the idea that it would be easier to attract investors if powering down could be done faster.

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Thanks for sharing! Greetings from a Brazilian friend

You're welcome.

Any reason it is 13 weeks?? 4 weeks seems a better wsy to go.

52/4 = 13. 4 weeks is roughly one month. 13 weeks is one season. I suppose it's as simple as that.

@markkujantunen, In my opinion, for Volatile market no words will going to do justice because when it's volatile hold surprises too. Let's hope that Steem will empower people as means of Staking or Selling. Stay blessed.

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Part of the problem with allowing people to randomly powerdown by paying extra is the huge uncertainties this will create.
We know how much liquid Steem and SBD there is and the prices reflect this. It can all be sold immediately.
It is hard enough to predict the price in 13 weeks and investors are on constant powerdown as a result. We can calculate the total amount of Steem on powerdown and make predictions at least 1 week in advance.

Now imagine if you have people burning Steem to turn liquid faster than 13 weeks. The system will become even less certain and increasingly difficukt to determine the price.

Any discount existing due to the 13 week powerdown has already been in place since it was made that long a couple years ago.

Although this is good for short term investors, long term investors will suffer.
Also, converting liquid into steem power will be less valuable as a result.

Do we really want steem to become this? I think it is more of a long term th8ng, especially with the lerarning curve to.figure out curation and all. Also, there is delegation which can be rented to increase your power with a 5 day cool down already.

My suggestion is just make an SMT (or scot for now) that allows instant conversion and see what happens. I don't think it will be good for.the token economy.

Part of the problem with allowing people to randomly powerdown by paying extra is the huge uncertainties this will create. We know how much liquid Steem and SBD there is and the prices reflect this. It can all be sold immediately.

No, it really can't.

It is hard enough to predict the price in 13 weeks and investors are on constant powerdown as a result. We can calculate the total amount of Steem on powerdown and make predictions at least 1 week in advance.

Nobody can predict the price. It's determined by both supply and demand. They're in a dynamic relationship with one another.

Now imagine if you have people burning Steem to turn liquid faster than 13 weeks. The system will become even less certain and increasingly difficukt to determine the price.

No, it's really the opposite. Demand for and supply of the liquid portion of STEEM determines all short-term price action. Is STEEM less volatile than the average cryptocurrency? I don't think so. And it's hardly surprising because there is much less liquid STEEM on the markets than there would be if you could vote with liquid STEEM (which I'm not suggesting should be possible). When the demand peaks, the price cannot help but go up much faster than it otherwise would as a result. That leads to an excessive printing of SBD, which results in even more STEEM being printed when the price crashes and reaches very low levels, at which time SBD, too, tends to be priced under one USD. That's when people convert their SBD into STEEM, which results even greater downward pressure on the price of STEEM. We saw just that last December when there was a huge amount of SBD floating around that had been printed during the previous bull run. That excess SBD begun to be converted when the SBD was priced under one USD and when the SBD Debt Ratio was still under 10% but getting closer.

Any discount existing due to the 13 week powerdown has already been in place since it was made that long a couple years ago.

Why would we want it in the first place?

Although this is good for short term investors, long term investors will suffer.
Also, converting liquid into steem power will be less valuable as a result.

Do we really want steem to become this? I think it is more of a long term th8ng, especially with the lerarning curve to.figure out curation and all. Also, there is delegation which can be rented to increase your power with a 5 day cool down already.

People generally don't consider the dynamic effects enough. There is no reason to fear of excessive powerdowns and panic selling. If that were to happen, it would be very easy to become a whale instantly because even small amounts of SP left would have a hugely oversized control over the reward pool. Things are always in a dynamic balance.

My suggestion is just make an SMT (or scot for now) that allows instant conversion and see what happens. I don't think it will be good for.the token economy.

Instant powerdown is not a good idea. That's because STEEM has Delegated-Proof-of-Stake and the stake part is having coins locked up for a period of time so as to force those who vote for witnesses to suffer the consequences if they let malicious witnesses to take over the network. Therefore, I'd say four weeks is a minimum and that there should be a steep cost to powering down as quickly as possible. But the possibility should be there for short-term investors in particular. They have an important role to play in creating liquidity.

Fair points and perhaps having an option to pay for an accelerated power-down could work.
Some services already exist but it involved giving up your account. I guess if you have a blogging account and just separate burn accounts for investing (that delegate to the blogging account), that could work.

Very complicated piece to follow!
Thanks for sharing!

Me I buy 2k steem in blocktrade and I do power up is good move to me

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I think markets will stabilize once there is more money in the ecosystem. Right now cryptocurrency as a whole is just a drop in the ocean compared to global market with trillions of dollars worth tied to them.

I do like the idea of a fee (I imagine it would be burned) though that would make for a faster power down.

Yep I think we need to find ways to burn steem and "buying" the right to a shorter power down I think would be a pretty clever way to go.

Hi, @markkujantunen
Thank you for sharing your thought processes and understanding of this complex economy.
Many of us are still learning am trying g to comprehend how all these complicated components fit and work together. The learning curve is steep.

By the way, those are beautiful pictures. What place is this body of water?
Thanks,

Thank you for your kind words.

That body of water is a small lake in Lahti, Southern Finland. I used to live close to it. Last May, I went back to the lake to shoot these long exposures when the weather and the time seemed right.

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