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RE: Are You Ready For The Collapse?
I want to give some input on this.
There are basically 3 different counts for the DOW and S&P500 each.
They are pointing to different years for a crash to occur.
- count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen within 6 months
- count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen in two years.
- count says a big (at least 50%) crash will happen in 10-12 years.
It is either or and for now, we cannot see a clear favorite count. It can happen anytime now, that is the dangerous part of the late-cycle.
Brexit, EU-disintegration, USD losing reserve currency status or any war escalation could trigger the crash.
BUT: I think they are going to desperately print money (and even use helicopter money and central banks buying 50% of all stocks...) until even printing money is not gonna push the stock market higher anymore. So I slightly favor the crash in 10-12 years. But who knows...
Hi @ew-and-patterns
It's me again with a small (but perhaps interesting) question :)
Im not sure if you've ever seen this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
USA debt is growing fast. Same with China, Japan, UK, India, France ... you name it. Italian debt is growing super fast.
However 4 countries like Germany, Poland, Ireland and Portugal are having their debts decreasing. I was shocked when I found out about it yesterday. Any thoughts on that issue? How is it possible that most economies are having their debt growing but there are some countries that do not follow that trend?
Yours
Piotr
Take Germany for example. Germany is not growing its debt for 5 years now. And they are decreasing their debt passively by issuing bonds, those bonds have negative ROI at the moment, so each year, Germany is decreasing its debt by using stupid banks, assurances and big money investors who think that their money is safe in the hands of the German state (total BS by the way, if the euro collapses which it will, those guys will lose all their money invested in those bonds.
That has some good effects, but also some very bad effects.
Yes the debt burden is shrinking which is good, but the liabilities are increasing without people noticing.
Whats negative? Debtors such as greece, italy, spain and portugal are going to default on their debt. - Germany will pay for it.
Banks are going to die - Germany will pay for it.
Italy will leave the EU next, Germany will pay for it because it will likely kill the EU.
The last one on the sinking ship will pay for this mess - this will be Germany.
So the reduced debt will end in the same way as if they would increase their debt by 2000%. They are screwed...
Dear @ew-and-patterns
I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.
Yours
Piotr
I concur, the illusion of Germany's "credit worthiness" must be maintained to hide the overall EU's horrible lack of it. The result for Germans is ...more austerity and they seem to just be lapping it up.