When DApps can onboard millions of new users en-messe, Steem will achieve Billion Dollar Marketcap even without speculation!
The math is simple. We need 1M active Steem blockchain users who will hold on average 100SP. These users will use multiple DApps to earn different tokens not necessarily blog only on Steemit. Tokens will have values since they will be marketed by the respective DApp entrepreneurs.
At this moment, speculation is the main driver for most of the top cryptocurrency such as BTC, BCH or LTC. Due to lack of speculation about Steem due to lack of marketing or proliferation of Steem's misinformation, Steem's price is suffering worse than its peers in this altcoin bear market.
In total, 100 million liquid SP will be removed from the market if another 1M Steem users are added to the blockchain. Currently, there are around 100M liquid Steem and some are for fire sell at less than 25 cents. The purchase of 25 Steem will only require $25. However, when millions of them are trying to buy Steem, it is bound to shoot.
Now, question is that how can 1M users earn Steem. The answer is no, most of them will not earn Steem but TOKENs. Only few of them may earn Steem. For example, investing bloggers will earn LEO, creative bloggers will earn Creative Coin (CCC), sport enthusiast will earn SPORTS, physical exercise enthusiasts will earn AFIT, product hunters will earn HUNT, link/news hunters will earn DLIKE tokens.
Though they are Steemians since they hold some SP, but their main earning source will be from curation and creating content at the respective DApps. But they will require minimum amount to SP (around 50-100 SP) to continue decent amount activities on DApps (e.g. RC requirements).
Therefore, if all these DApps and future DApps can bring another 1M active users or 5M accounts (assuming 1 in 5 will be active and will need 100 SP), then Steem can easily reach more than a billion marketcap.
In Steem's heyday when SBD was around $2-5 and Steem was above $2-3, there are lots of active users. Because, earning decent amount in fiat equivalent in Steem was easier. Due to current hardship earning good amount of fiat (not steem), interest in Steem has waned.
However, DApps such as @palnet, @steem.leo, @sportstalk, @actifit, @steemhunt, @dlike, @creativecoin are showing lots of promises. But they have to onboard thousands of new users, not already existed Steem users.
The good thing about these DApps that their devs and founders have their own incentive to be successful or to see values in their token. For example, @palnet co-founder @aggroed and @steem.leo founder @khaleelkazi, have detailed their plans to burn PAL and LEO though different sinks.
The marketing and drive for success are thus becoming decentralized for Steem chain through DApps. For example, DApps founders and community are working hard for their respective TOKENs independently. They are creating indirect demand for Steem. Steem is getting decentralized marketing.
Now, imagine that we have a successful, killer DApp that onboarded 10M users, where each of them will require at least 50 SP to function on that DApp to earn tokens. What will happen to the demand for Steem?
What will happen to Steem's reward pool? Who will earn Steem?
Will Steemit become an elite blogger's site where top creators will only earn Steem?
However, looking into current scenario even with HF21 and EIP, delegators to bots still continue. Bot owners will return the big portion of the curation to investors. Therefore, it will be a hybrid ROI based investment along with curation. EIP may help to discover good contents but it may not able to force all passive delegators to be curators. However, their ROI will be decreased.
However, all kind of rewards for contents mostly will flow through DApps. If DApps can onboard millions of new users who will require a small amount of SP for RC, then Steem can reach billion dollar marketcap even without speculation.
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Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.
Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.
Peace
@dtrade
Crypto-miner, trader and blogger since 2013
Steemit interface will not get mainstream adoption and will remain a niche market in the crypto sphere. Tribes might get some traction but I don't believe any more of the mainstream penetration for Steem.
It is more of trial and error in more numbers (e.g. more DApps on Tribes or SMT based). Due to sheer number of attempts, one or two DApps can be a big hit that will bring millions of users. Users may not be aware of the underlying Steem blockchain. DApp can provide necessary SP (e.g. 20 SP delegation) to new users to function in their DApps. In that case, that successful DApps will require millions of SP. The killer idea for that DApp is still to be seen: right now, @actifit, @steemhunt, @sprinterlands, @palnet, @steemleo have good possibility.
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