My Reply to Roger Ver on Ethereum, Forks, and Bitcoin

I respectfully disagree:

A Higher market cap means speculators are speculating (good!). I hear the claim that after the fork capital didn't flee, but how much of the fresh capital was from pre-DAO-hack and pre-fork short positions - which were huge positions that must have profited huge?! I mean, millions of BTC likely came into ETH/C this way.

I am rooting for Ethereum and Ethereum Classic and I support their coexistence. However, the fork was MOST DEFINITELY NOT a good thing for Ethereum the technology project or the Ethereum community in the short and medium term, which is the only time frame that matters. But, it was absolutely a good thing for the Blockchain Ecosystem as a whole. It might even be the single most instructive event to take place yet for charting the future of this space.

Now, I think it's much more likely that a competitor overtakes ETH/C now than before the fork. Both chains are at risk of failing now under their own weight, not to mention competitive pressure from each other AND from new challengers who are learning RIGHT NOW how to overtake ETH/C. Also, ETH has to fork again, and one more threat that ETH itself faces is it has a dogged antagonist nipping at its heels in the savvy DAO hacker who has shown a penchant for magnifying the technological and the cultural blemishes (fatal flaws?) in ETH and its leadership.

The hacker is why the minority chain didn't die. In fact, the raison d'etre for ETC is precisely to troll ETH. Now, there's a huge community (and market cap) backing that purpose. I can see one rational reason to buy ETC, and that is because it's basically ETH at 2015 prices. Perhaps, that reason is largely responsible for some fresh capital too, but it's a split so everything's diluted.

The net increase in market cap of ETH/C vs pre-fork ETH is because of a honeymoon period of fascination around the entire DAO hack > fork > ETC split saga. It's pure entertainment value, which is fine and maybe profitable for some smart traders and lucky teenagers, but it's not lasting. It's not supposed to be. I support my friends who work on/for and invest money/time into ETH/C, but I have an existential dread when I imagine that I am in their shoes.