Are we going to return to the old steem profits eventually? Maybe, here is why.

It seems that the profits we are getting keep on going down. Will this lead to the profits going back to almost nothing? That might be, here is why.

WHY?

Before I get started, I want to say, this post isn't about creating fear, this is showing you the opportunity it brings.

When the new hard fork 19 rolled out, I was so happy that I finally got what I believed was a fair amount for my posts as a new quality poster (about $2 on average). This enthusiasm was short lived, since it didn't take long till I started noticing that the profits I got were getting lower, even those that I had already received. To top this all, I started getting even less upvotes than before. This was annoying to say the least.

When I think about it, there was obviously going to be some consequences to such inflation. I knew it, I just didn't want to believe it.

So why do I think we might be going down and continue going down until we reach the same levels as before? It's really quite simple. There is only a limited amount of steem to be divided among users each day. In the long run, this will mean, that when the amount of users on steemit grow, you will see less and less profits for the same amount of votes (with the same power).

How fast will it happen?

This is only the beginning. The new system is only finding its place and your rewards are still probably higher than they should be. When this settles, your rewards will start going down about 5% each week. Why is that? Well, again quite simple: new users. Each week, about 5% new users are coming to steemit. This will mean that the prize pool will need to be divided among these new 5% also, ofc it will take time for them to start generating much steem, but the thing is, these new people are coming in all the time, and if we expect that the chances of immediate success on steemit remain the same, the effect will keep repeating itself.

Luckily, as we post more, we gain more reputation, more followers, and more writing skill, which in turn results in more votes. This will keep the rewards of active users from going back down to what they were. However, the new users, will eventually have to cope with the same sort of times as what were pre HF19.

Why isn't it that bad?

If you are active currently, you have time to gain votes, reputation, followers and develop as a writer. You will be at an advantage over those who come next. You will also get this time to boost yourself and gain an advantage over those who will come afterwards. Even though you will most likely be receiving less and less steem, you will see the benefits within price growth. When this inflationary phase goes away, we will start seeing quicker price growth on steemit. This is because all those new people, will affect the prize of steem in a positive way. So look at it like this: in a year, 1 steem might be worth 8 US dollars(?), or something similar. So it won't be half as bad as it seems like now. When the supply gets less, the value goes up.

Those who are able to get their hands on a lot of steem now, will be even more happy in the future. And those who aren't able to get a lot, like me, will still be happy because the small amounts we've received now, will be much more in the future. They might even seem huge in a few years. Imagine for example, if one steem would be worth 100 US dollars, who wouldn't be happy then? And I really think that isn't an impossible thing within a few years, if the amount of users keep on growing like this.

If that is the case, I am happy to write these articles for a hundred bucks. I'll keep 'em rolling. If not, well at least I get to share my thoughts with people, the same as I would be doing for free on blogger, and am.