Be Wary Chart Analysis!
Behold, I, The Chart, Can Predict the Future...
It seems like many of the speculators in the cryptoverse are putting a lot of stock in technical chart analysis. While this makes sense if we were investing in normal markets, there are so many parts of this market that are uncharted. I would think any technical chart analysis should be viewed with a grain of salt, not for lack of technical experience, but due to the relatively short time-frame the cryptoverse has been present. There are such a large number of known and understood outliers and experiences the cryptoverse has not been subject to, and yet, there must be an even greater number of unknowns given the youth of the market.
It is for this reason, but watching the market agree with our predictions, we subconsciously start to believe that our predictions were well founded. So the paradox of how being right, doesn't mean you were proven right....
Correlation <> Causation
Many can say numbers don't lie, but any chart can be maniputlated. I for one am guilty in seeing the upside potential for whatever my upside is. That's simple optimism. I suppose this comes to the scientific method. In order to truly believe in something, spend as much energy as you can to disprove it. If you are unsuccessful, congratulations on your success.
To apply to the cryptoverse, consider this. We should not assume that because a market prediction based on chart analysis proved correct, that the prediction was made for the correct reasons. Rather, find these times when a prediction worked and attempt to find a reason why that prediction came true, but for reasons other than those given as the basis for the prediction. It is through this process that I think the rules the cryptocurrency universe follows will be established.
#The Future
I, for one, am excited to see all the amazing new things cryptocurrency will do for the world. I think thought, that one of these, will be supply an entirely new set of rules and circumstances to currency trading, chart analysis, and even securities trading, where these things apply.
SO for those of you that are experts on the chart analysis, first of all, THANK YOU! There is no doubt that your anlaysis has value and worth reviewing and utilzing to make some decisions. For all of us that don't do those analyses, they aren't fact, and I think that crypto will not be playing by the rules of current chart patterns in all cases, and perhaps not in many cases. Time will tell. Just a thought.
Cheers,
So... For some reason the tag for "the" is appearing in my new posts and I cannot remove it. Anyone else had that problem?
My thought on this is you are right, on a macro level, charts will not be good indicators of the future. However, on a micro level, like days-weeks-months, chart watching can be a self fulfilling prophecy. People who see resistance at a certain point on the chart, then place limit orders that work with that resistance. I believe this is why people like charts. You aren't really playing the market, your playing the people involved with the market.
Well said Mr. Hound. However, given the relatively low market capitalization of the market, the volatility is so dramatic, I would argue it is even more difficult to subscribe to the market tendency, as the market itself is not yet established. Your thoughts become more and more true, as the cap increase.