Reuters: What could happen in the UK if Parliament rejects the Brexit agreement. 7 possible scenarios
Latest update: Tuesday 27 November 2018 20:04
Publication Date: Wednesday 28 November 2018 22:10
British Prime Minister Theresa May needs to get a favorable vote in the Parliament in London on the UK out of the EU.
The chances for the British legislature to validate the agreement with the bloc seem to be rather weak, Reuters reports in an analysis of the possible consequences of such a negative vote, Agerpres informs.
Under British law, in such a case, the London government will have 21 days to decide what it intends to do next.
The government led by Theresa May has already reported that if the legislature rejects the document, the UK will leave the EU without any agreement. However, the reality of the immense uncertainty in the world's fifth largest economy and the possible negative reaction of the financial markets require a closer political response.
Reuters outlined what would be the possible implications of the British Parliament's rejection of the Brexit agreement:
Theresa May may resign from the Conservative Party leadership, which would trigger an internal party competition to appoint a new head of the party to replace her as prime minister without calling for early parliamentary elections. Theresa May has so far refused to talk about a resignation.
Long-term efforts even made by some members of the Conservative Party to remove Theresa May could have a new impetus with a rejection of the Brexit agreement. If at least 48 of the 315 conservative lawmakers demand her departure, then the party will hold an internal vote of confidence. If Theresa May loses at this vote, an internal competition will be initiated to replace it, also without early elections.
- The vote of no confidence
The Labor opposition could initiate a no-confidence motion against the government in an attempt to take over its leadership without holding early elections. If the government falls, then the laborers will have 14 days to prove, also through a vote in parliament, that they can coagulate a majority to form the government.
- Early elections
If Laborists fail to form a government after Theresa May loses the vote of confidence, early elections will be called. But Theresa May could convene this election if at least two-thirds of the parliamentarians agree, although she has already said that such a vote would not be in favor of the national interest.
The London government, whether or not Theresa May remains prime minister, may demand a renegotiation of the terms of the Brexit agreement, trying to get some concessions from the EU, so that the revised text is once again subject to the vote of the London legislature. But both Theresa May and Brussels have said that the document already agreed will not reopen negotiations.
- A second referendum
The idea of organizing a second Brexite referendum is difficult to put into practice, but a quite vocal group of MPs strongly advocates. Theresa May has so far excluded such an eventuality.
- Deferring or canceling Brexit
The London government could try to prolong the negotiation period with the EU to finalize the future relationship, hoping that the deal will be more favorable to the UK. One option is the renunciation of Brexit, a possibility that has been rejected so far by Theresa May.
The leaders of the 27 EU Member States on Wednesday approved the UK blockade agreement in Brussels and the statement outlining the post-Brexit relationship with London. The withdrawal agreement, which has 585 pages, details the legal conditions for the UK UK exit to the EU on March 29, 2019. The political declaration accompanying the agreement covers common future objectives in the fields of trade, security and political cooperation, the basis for negotiations that can begin immediately after the departure of the EU.
The agreement provides for an initial transitional period until the end of 2020, when almost nothing will change in relations between the UK and the EU. Subsequently, if the transition period is not extended (one or two years at the most), the UK would remain in the customs union with the EU in the absence of an agreement on another type of trade relationship.
Essentially, Therese May's opinion is that the document obliges the EU to look for ways to avoid activating a "safety net" clause that guarantees that at the border between the Republic of Ireland - which is an EU Member State - and the British province of Ireland North Customs will not be reinstated. She also estimated that this agreement "corresponds to the referendum vote, gives us control over our borders, our money and our laws, while protecting the jobs, security and integrity of the United Kingdom
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