Steem Forecast #1 - 09/11/2016 - INTRODUCTION
I am starting a new series, where I will publish every day the forecasted price of the STEEM/BTC market, 1 day ahead, using complex mathematical and quantitative analysis tools.
I have been doing quantitative analysis for some time now, so I have a lot of experience in forecasting. In my past articles I have been experimenting with them, but in the past 2 days, I have started analyzing the STEEM/BTC market very thoroughly, therefore now I have built some models that would be pretty good for forecasting.
I have tested many many models, some of them bad, some of them good. And the more I calculate the more accurate my models become. My goal through this series will be to provide as accurate forecasts as possible, for free, but I would appreciate if I would get many upvotes for the effort I will put into this.
Now the format of the daily forecast report will be very simple, don't worry I won't write too much text in it, only in this article, since this one is the introduction part.
Introduction:
Now as you can see I have tested many many models, from the worst accuracy to the decent accuracy:
Then I have settled at 24 hour short term forecast, as forecasting too much into the future without previous data is not that accurate.
So I have found a decent model, but still researching for more accurate ones. But I have made a prediction for tomorrow's price using this model until I find a better one. So here it is:
Forecast #1 (09/11/2016 @ 12:00AM):
Model & Parameters Used: SECRET
Market: Poloniex.com - STEEM/BTC - CLOSE price
Date of Forecast: 09/11/2016 @ 12:00am (UTC)
Date of Forecast (ISO 8601): 2016-09-11T00:00:00+00:00
Date of Forecast (Unix Timestamp): 1473552000
Forecasted Steem Price: 0.001020 BTC
95% Confidence Interval: 0.000678 BTC - 0.001363 BTC
Standard Error: 0.000175
Estimated Model Mean Absolute Error: 0.000080099
Previous Estimated Model Mean Absolute Error: N/A
Accuracy Change: N/A
Previous Forecasted Price: N/A
Previous Actual Price: N/A
Previous Actual Error: N/A
Error Change: N/A
Disclaimer: The information provided on this page might be incorrect. I am not responsible if you lose money using the information on this page! This is not an investment advice, just my opinion and analysis for educational purposes.
Title Image Credit: @d3m0t3x
Fortune-teller Image Credit: http://www.wall-pix.net
This is a great idea and could be very valuable. Thank you for your contribution
No problem, my other PC is running now some calculations and optimizations, my model will probably become more and more accurate as the time goes by. I expect even more accurate prediction for part #2.
Thanks so much for your forecast. If your forecast are very good which I think to which extend will it actually change the market behaviour since a few control big quantities of it?
Only if every whale reads this,which I doubt.
But even if me publishing this information can affect the price, the worst it can do in my opinion, is that it will make it an auto-fulfilling prophecy.
So about 50% my forecast is accurate , and 50% the traders make it accurate by just reading it. Who knows?
But if my forecast will be accurate, then it won't matter would it? It would be like the chicken and the egg problem.